Poly Real Estate (600048): 2018 Performance Meeting
The first part analysis of real estate development trend Zhang Liangyi, president of Poly Real Estate Research Institute, long-term trend1.
During the peak, the market capacity can be expected. We insist that the forecast era will continue for a long time.
In general, there are three reasons. First, there is at least 15 points of improvement in the urbanization rate, and 2.
200 million rural people have to enter the city.
Second, demand for improvement is still being released. Many people still live in the current urban villages, and employees’ dormitory rooms are being converted into houses.
Third, the house or the core method of asset allocation, accounting for nearly 7
0% to 80% of household assets.
These were mentioned in previous exchanges.
Therefore, the incremental demand is still very large. In the next 5 to 10 years, China’s real estate sales will remain at the level of billions, and the overall basic stability is the key to the structural change and where to find the increase.
The population is large and the urban structure is significantly differentiated. The Development and Reform Commission has released the key tasks of new-type urbanization construction in 2019, which proposes that large cities with a permanent population of more than 1 million must relax their settlement conditions.
At present, there are many concepts about the urban population. We often say that it includes the resident population, the registered population, the urban population, and the urban population. You can see that the government’s recognition of the city size is the urban population, which is also a cornerstone of the real estate industry’s determination of the market size.
We found that the size and growth rate of the urban population basically determines the actual size of each city. There are 92 cities with a population of more than 1 million, accounting for 61% of the national urban population and 68% of the market size, which are highly matched.
From this point of view, China’s urban structure: 15 cities with a population of 10 million or more; 9 cities with a population of 5-10 million; 13 cities with a population of 3 to 5 million; 65 cities with a population of 1 to 3 millionThere are 579 cities with population below 1 million.
It is an objective law that the population is highly concentrated toward the first and second lines.
Historically, China ‘s population has grown by 67 million in the past ten years, of which the first and second tiers account for 90%, and the third and fourth tiers in related metropolitan areas account for 20%.
In other words, the population of more than 12
0 other third, fourth, and fifth-tier cities is losing.
The greater the core city’s agglomeration ability, when it is restricted by the administrative area, it will spill over to the surrounding areas.
The top 10% of China ‘s cities are home to 28% of the country ‘s population, compared to 40% in the United States, and China ‘s population is far from enough.
China is a country on the high-speed rail. It has the fastest and largest high-speed rail network in the world, sending an average of 1.7 billion passengers annually.
With reference to Japan’s Shinkansen, high-speed rail is a booster for population gathering.
China will add 3 in the next 20 years.
500 million laborers, of which 200 million are in the first- and second-tier related urban areas.
500 million highly educated people will make urban economic industries full of vitality.
The increase brought by these 200 million people is not a single line, but a multi-line, ladder.
Some of them entered the city from the countryside, and others from the third and fourth lines to Beibuhuhubu, and even the cross-weaving movement of the floating population from the first and second lines of Beishangguang, which may bring more than 300 million changes in demand.The average annual increase in housing area is 600 million square meters.
There is a lot of demand in the first and second tiers and related urban circles, but the land supply has historically failed to keep up.
Taking Guangdong Province as an example, the population in the core area of the Pearl River Delta has increased by 4.6 million in the past five years, and the corresponding supply is 1.
700 million flats, while the two wings increased by 1.2 million people, corresponding to more than 80 million flats.
The core supply land is relatively small, and the peripheral supply land is large, and the supply and demand do not match.
Why were the last three and four lines so popular?
The main reason is that the total demand has not been met in the past, and the supply of the first and second lines is controlled by another expert. The demand has been squeezed out.
With the overall unchanged, the stable market is still demand-oriented, and the land supply system will gradually meet the demand in the future. The Development and Reform Commission recently proposed a policy guidance linked to land and money.
However, the intensity of land development in some first- and second-tier cities has now exceeded 30%.
New land use indicators have not been able to solve the problem of insufficient land, and urban renewal will inevitably become the dominant way to revitalize stocks.
The population and industry together form the fundamentals of the city. The life cycle of a city is the life cycle of real estate, and population change is a concentrated expression of vitality.
For most of the third- and fourth-tier populations, there is almost no growth, and the industrial upgrade is slow. 2018 may be the highest point in history. Ninety percent of the total national market in the future will be in the top 100 cities. To develop, we must focus on the first-tier and second-tier and relatedIn the metropolitan area, we must seize the key minority to obtain an absolute majority.
3.Significant cross-border risks test the real strength of real estate companies in recent years. The capital market has paid more attention to the new development direction of real estate companies. We have roughly divided the transformation and development of real estate companies into three categories.
The first category is to switch careers completely. Instead of doing real estate, do science and technology for culture. At present, no relatively successful cases have been found.
The second type is to do cross-border business, sell mineral water, and engage in agriculture while doing the main business. Basically, they are held high and gently put down.
The third category is focused on the development of the main industry, and related industries have blossomed and bear fruit, so far no one has become a towering tree.
The ratio of US real estate value added to GDP is 12.
2%, while China is now only 6.
The real estate industry includes not only new home sales, but also leasing, property, brokerage, etc.
Despite the inflection point of incremental development, the entire real estate industry is still far from its peak.
There are also trillions of leasing markets in the industry, as well as two more than 500 billion yuan including real estate and brokerage.
The relevant fields of the industry revolve around the initial extension of real estate. As an infrastructure madness, there are more than 20 trillion construction markets in the upstream.
Horizontally extending, there are two trillion-level markets such as community retail and cultural tourism. The entire market can be connected to the real estate development market ecology close to 40 trillion.
In the past two years, the Sino-US trade war has been a focus of world confrontation. Chairman Xi said that the Pacific Ocean is large enough to break through and allow China-US replacement.
We believe that the main channel of real estate is broad enough to accommodate more than a few hundred billion companies.
Therefore, focusing on the main channel and extending it appropriately may be the most reasonable choice for the current diversification of housing enterprises.
Industry deleveraging and financial deleveraging enable development to focus on the main channel, and it is also necessary to give play to the hematopoietic capabilities of real estate finance.
Industry debt has been gathering risk over the years, and Gao denied that the old road of rolling development is getting harder and harder.
The average debt ratio of the top five housing enterprises in China is over 80%, and some have exceeded 90%.
In terms of foreign countries, the top five housing companies in the United States and CapitaLand in Singapore all have a resistivity of about 50%.
The proportion of land development prices and house prices in the United States is higher, and some pre-sale systems like the domestic ones do not provide return.
CapitaLand has been engaged in a large number of development while holding a large amount of existing assets.
They can play assets with one hand and control whether with one hand. The key is to make good use of the capital market.
We believe that the future financing model will not be a pure developer plus leverage, but a full bloom of financing channels.
For front-end dating funds, developing the ability to trade is the core competitiveness, and the ability to operate against assets is the biggest test.
In the era of financial innovation, a company’s ability to ride the wind and waves can attract everyone to sail.
Second, the short-term market judges that 2018-2019 will enter a new cycle.
This year is still a year of adjustment. There are many uncertain factors, but overall we believe that the risks are controllable.
The economy is facing downwards, and policies are facing shocks.
But at the same time, we must see that once the local area is excessive, the country will still unanimously expect it, so we think that the property market will maintain a narrow box movement.
The biggest feature of the new cycle is differentiation.
As we said earlier, it can be expected that the first and second tier cities and related metropolitan areas may gradually pick up in the future, and many third and fourth tier cities will continue to adjust.
The future of the industry is full of imagination, and the era of making money by lying down is over.
The development of the industry is a marathon, half horses that belong to outstanding players have come to an end, and all horses that belong to professional players have just begun.
The second part of the 2018 business review and 2019 outlook Poly Development General Manager Liu Ping’s 2018 business review I. Sales maintained a growth of 100 billion yuan, and core areas contributed high.
Sales exceeded 400 billion, market share increased rapidly, and sales contracted value reached 404.8 billion in 18 years. After 16 years and 17 years, it exceeded 200 billion and 300 billion, and once again achieved 100 billion growth.31%.
At the end of 2018, the company’s market share increased by 0.
39 averages, reaching 2.
In the first- and second-tier cities, the sales contribution of the core city clusters highlights that the company’s urban rooting effect continues to appear, and the sales ratio in first- and second-tier cities reaches 77.
The core third- and fourth-tier cities in the surrounding city circle accounted for 18.
8%, more than 90% in total.
Among the core cities of the company’s key layouts, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of the Yangtze River Delta of the Pearl River Delta is 117.8 billion, 78.7 billion and 43.2 billion respectively, accounting for 29%, 19% and 11%.
In terms of a pair of cities, Guangzhou is the first time to exceed 40 billion, Foshan and Beijing have exceeded 25 billion, nine cities such as Qingdao and Hangzhou have exceeded 70 billion, and there are several cities with potentials of nearly 10 billion, including Taiyuan, Xi’an and Wenzhou.
The product focuses on the mainstream market demand, and the company with a high comprehensive dechemicalization rate has always adhered to ordinary housing, insisting on rigid demand and improving demand.
Residential sales accounted for more than 90% of the total sales in 18 years, and 90- to 120-square-foot units were the mainstays, providing buyers with cost-effective products with controllable total price, high utilization rate and strong functionality.
Beginning in mid-2018, as the industry entered an accelerated downward adjustment period, home buyers’ wait-and-see mood increased, and demand for home purchases returned to their residential attributes.
The company’s dechemicalization has also gone down correspondingly, but it has good small products and has achieved the effect of de-selling.
In July-October, the de-chemicalization rate reached 70% in three months, and the annual comprehensive de-chemicalization rate remained at 83.
Higher level of 6%.
Second, land resources focus on core urban agglomerations, and the structure is continuously optimized1.
The first and second tiers of the land reserve account for over 60% and the six core groups account for nearly 70%.
By the end of 18, the size of the property to be developed reached 91.54 million square meters, and the scale under construction was one.
3.0 billion cubic meters, which can guarantee the company’s development needs in the next 2 to 3 years.
The company responded well to industry fluctuations and provided redundant strategic efforts.
The development of the land, focusing on the area where the company takes root, is highly excellent, and the proportion of start-up and second-tier cities is 60.
3%, the core third and fourth lines around the urban agglomeration is 30.
2%, the total exceeds 90%.
The Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chengdu-Chongqing, Haixi, Wuhan six urban agglomerations, the total ratio reached 68.
Keeping in mind the national strategy, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Yangtze River Delta integration of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area are the birthplaces of the company. They have deep foundations and outstanding resource advantages.
The company completed full regional coverage at a low cost in the early days, and continued to acquire large-scale, large-scale land with outstanding growth capabilities through land attachment, old reform, and industrial development.
At the end of 2018, the scale to be developed was 34.47 million square meters, accounting for 37.
7%, of which the core circle layer is 22.55 million square meters.
The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, as a key area for the company, has entered 21 cities with a development scale of 7.04 million square meters and a construction scale of 1.69 million square meters. It will continue to expand investment and strategic layout in the future.
Starting from the 16 years of continuous optimization of land resources, the company started from the scale and structure, and quickly improved land resources in both ways.
The first is to grasp the market potential and accelerate the scale of land reserve. The construction area of newly added soil storage space from 2016 to 18 reached 6.
4.0 billion cubic meters, with a previous growth rate of 130%, which is one of the three-year cumulative sales area.
Five times, the amount of newly added soil reserves in three years is 590.9 billion US dollars, the annual growth rate is 266%, and the proportion of sales amount is 64%.
The second is to increase focus on first-tier and second-tier cities and core cities. In the three years from 2016 to 2018, the proportion of the six major urban agglomerations has increased to the current 68.
Third, diversified and differentiated land expansion capabilities have significantly improved in the face of fierce competition in the land market. The company continues to expand its capabilities in acquisitions and mergers, old reforms, land consolidation and industrial development to enhance differentiation or core competitiveness.
In 18 years, the newly expanded area was 31.1 million cubic meters, and the expansion amount was 592.7 billion yuan.
Through acquisition, cooperation, old reform, and industrial development, the proportion of development amounted to 54%, an increase of 11 mergers over 2017. Among them, the industrial development force is relatively rapid, with a development area of 3.21 million square meters, an increase of nearly 12 times over 17 years.
Fourth, build commercial operation capabilities and recapture the value of core commercial assets1.
The scale of business operations and professional capabilities have rapidly improved. After decades of professional training, the company has become a business organization integrating office, shopping malls, hotels, apartments, exhibition halls and other multi-format businesses.
In 2018, the company had 65 commercial operation projects with a management area of 2.66 million square meters and operating income of 2.4 billion.
In addition to self-built projects, leading formats such as shopping malls and hotels have developed management output in cities such as Guangzhou and Tianjin.
The market-based outreaching area accounts for 厦门夜网 40%. It has had a series of continuous influences in the past and has made important progress many times.
The holding of commercial resources focuses on first- and second-tier cities, and the potential for value revaluation is considerable. At the end of 18 years, the company completed 1.97 million square meters of completed commercial projects and 2.88 million square meters of recommended commercial projects under construction, totaling 4.85 million square meters.
Among them, the first- and second-tier cities accounted for 93%.
The company is optimistic about the growth of commercial asset prices in the core areas of the first and second tiers. At present, all projects are valued at book costs, and the potential for future value-added release is huge.
At the same time, the company is optimistic about the core 杭州桑拿网 assets operation income and continuous growth of cash flow.
Fifth, revenue and profits have achieved rapid growth, and future settlement resources are abundant1.
The performance growth rate is good, and the gross profit margin has increased steadily for 18 years. The company realized operating income of 194.6 billion US dollars, net profit attributable to its mothers, 18.9 billion, an increase of 32.
7% and 20.
Settlement gross profit margin 32.
47%, an increase of 1.
Net interest rate 13.
Sufficient carry-over resources to lock in future performance growth The high growth of the sales side has led to subsequent performance growth. The growth rate of the company’s sales contract value in 16-18 has exceeded 30%, which is significantly higher than the growth rate of operating income and net profit. Future performanceExpected.
Since 17 years, the company’s advance payment has been significantly ahead of the current settlement income.
At the end of 17, 18, the company’s accounts received in advance were combined with 150% of the settlement income of the year, and the revenue growth was locked in advance.
6. Outstanding financing advantages, excellent asset structure, and strong anti-risk capability1.
The interest-bearing debt structure is good, and the cost advantage is significant. At the end of 2018, the company’s interest-bearing debt scale was 263.7 billion yuan, of which bank loans accounted for over 70% and direct financing accounted for over 15%. The overall structure was excellent.
The company has interest to deny that the comprehensive cost is only 5.
03%, new interest-bearing denial costs in 20185.
24%, financing costs remain at the lowest level.
At the end of 2018, the company had ample financing positions, including 281.2 billion unused bank credits, 13.5 billion votes (including perpetual votes), US $ 15 billion corporate bonds (under approval), 5 billion short-term financing, and real estate investment trust funds33.
Low resistance, high return, can calmly control the industry’s fluctuating assets and debt ratios and control smoothly.
At the end of 2018, the company’s asset-liability ratio was 77.
97%, the lowest among the top five in the industry.
Short-term debt repayment pressure is small.
The company continued to optimize the aging structure of interest-bearing debt, with only 18% due within one year, and the cash interest protection multiple rose to 2.
The sales return rate was 88%, and operating cash flow was 11.9 billion yuan.
The company effectively linked financial management with operational management, increased the coordination of total bank resources, and increased sales by 2 percentage points in 2018, and cash flow from operating activities turned positive again.
Seventh, the reform of management mechanism has promoted the significant improvement of operational efficiency.Implement the “Big Operators” organizational reform to enhance the operational assessment intensity. With cash flow management as the guide, open up a number of professional sectors such as plans, technology, engineering, sales, customer service, etc., set up a large operations management organization, unify management and control objectives, and improve collaboration efficiency.
It will increase the assessment of the first opening, recover shareholders’ investment, and return cash flow, and set special rewards such as development efficiency awards, return awards, and delivery awards, and implement full chain management of operations.
In 2018, the efficiency of project development was significantly improved, and the number of first launches was reduced by one.
In 4 months, the return on shareholders’ investment decreased by 4.
In 6 months, the positive gold flow has been reduced by 6 years.
The project followed the investment enthusiastically, and the effect of incentives and constraints was fully manifested. 2018 is the first year of the company’s formal implementation of follow-up investment. There have been 159 follow-up investment projects. Except for individual commercial self-held projects, newly acquired projects have basically achieved full coverage of follow-up investment, and gradually follow-up investment.More than 1.
50,000 person-times, which is 2 people who can follow.
3 times, and gradually followed the investment of nearly 1.4 billion yuan.
By setting up project decision-making operators to force follow-up investment, development efficiency affects follow-up investment returns, and follow-up investment targets implement full-scale supervision of project development efficiency to achieve both incentives and constraints.
Eight, the rapid development of two-wing business, capital helps market promotion1.
Property management ranks among the top five in the industry, and market-oriented business has rapidly improved the layout of existing property management projects in 130 cities with an area of 2.
500 million square meters in the tube area 1.
500 million flats, of which market-oriented business accounted for 35%, and acquired the campus property management leader Hunan Tianchuang Property.
The agency business is strong and powerful. The first three agencies in the first-tier agency industry cover 150 cities. The number of agency projects is 1,700. The total number of primary agencies exceeds 400 billion yuan. The revenue from agency sales agency fees is close to 4 billion yuan.
The advantages of scarce resources for cultural tourism projects are prominent 4.
Real estate fund management scale hits record high, maintaining industry leading advantages Credit Insurance Fund + Poly Capital + Pacific Poly Asset Management: Gradually develop a management scale of nearly US $ 100 billion, with more than 150 incremental investment projects, and Credit Insurance Fund has been ranked in the industry many timesForefront.
Major business strategies in 2019As the leading SOEs and the top five housing companies in the industry in 2019, Poly Development Holdings will still maintain its good strategic definition and positive development trend, abide by the laws of the industry, and respect the market cycle. It is neither blindly optimistic nor advocating adventure.Doctrines are also unsteady and stand still.
With a high degree of strategic self-confidence, the company will maturely cope with the fluctuations of the industry cycle, grasp the probability, strictly control the wind direction, enhance the development potential, achieve sustainable and steady growth of the enterprise, and move towards the goal of reaching a century-old store.
The main business strategies for 2019 include three major aspects: 1.
Continue to maintain the trend of sales growth and ensure the completion of the first point of the annual business goals. In a complex market environment, the company will continue to maintain an annual sales contract growth of more than two in 2019 to consolidate the size of the industry leader.
The second point is to seize the market window restored by the transaction volume of second-tier cities, increase construction efforts, ensure sufficient supply of effective cargo, and resolutely grasp market opportunities.
In 2019, the planned new construction scale is 45 million square meters, and the planned new delivery scale is not less than 550 billion yuan.
The third point is that experts take cash flow management as the core, further increase the management of sales withdrawal, especially equity withdrawal, and continuously improve turnover efficiency.
Highlight the optimization of asset and debt structure, give full play to its credit advantages, expand the application of multiple innovative financing instruments, and maintain a positive and stable level of leverage.
Adhering to the priority of development and continuously optimizing the resource reserve land as the most fundamental means of production for real estate companies, the company will actively seize the structural opportunities of the land market in 2019 to provide sufficient resource guarantee for the continued growth of sales scale in the future.
Specifically, it will increase the intensive cultivation of first- and second-tier cities and core cities, refine regional market research criteria, adhere to the strategy of dividing cities, optimize the development structure, continuously increase the value of resources, and strengthen the in-depth breakthrough in strategic layout.
The other is to increase the reserves of cornerstone projects, high-profit projects, focus on core cities, cities in core regions, accelerate the implementation of large-scale industrial development projects in Dongguan, Huizhou and other Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Areas, and actively participate in the reform of state-owned enterprises’ mixed ownership and play a roleThe advantages of central enterprises’ resources, make full use of the resources of the multi-industry sector to which Poly Group belongs, expand the group’s culture, light industry, industrial beauty, silk and other industries, and actively promote concept development.
Both the capital construction and the capital operation are promoted in a two-pronged manner. The implementation of the “one main and two wings” strategy in 2019 is the first year of the company’s strategic upgrade.Service system, creating a “real estate development platform” and realizing the upgrading of the growth mode, the company will provide market-oriented development mechanisms for the development of the two wings of the industry, actively transform market-oriented talents, increase cooperation with leading market institutions, and operate through capitalAccelerate the development of scale and marketization of the two-wing business. In the future, two or three listed companies will be cultivated in the two-wing business sector.
The integrated services sector will promote the spin-off of property H shares in 2019, further expand market share and build the leading property market in Hong Kong; the brokerage segment will accelerate integration with Hefu to rapidly expand market share and maintain the top three in the industry; business, exhibition and other marketsFor the sectors with higher capacity, through mechanism innovation, increase management output and business outreach; For the big health that is optimistic for a long time but is still in the growth stage, long-term rental apartments, cultural tourism and other industries, artificially create benchmark products and service resources.The air vent came to do enough preparation.
The real estate financial sector further increases the management scale and marketability of real estate funds, and maintains the industry’s leading position; deepens cooperation with regional financial platforms, and leverages the advantages of equity participation in securities, insurance, public funds and other fields to cover the entire industry chain.Financial control system to deepen resource synergy between real estate and financial industry.
the third part.
Operating data of Poly Property in 2018?
Future development strategy?
The company defines property as an important main business other than real estate development, and mainly values the community entrance value of the property, which also supports the brand building and product power improvement.The 2018 Poly Property Contract is under management area2.
500 million flats, net profit exceeding 300 million, ranked fourth in the industry in terms of tube size, and ranked fifth in terms of comprehensive strength.
In the past few years, the sales of Poly Real Estate increased rapidly. In the future, the area of Poly Real Estate delivery will increase significantly.
In 2015, Poly Property began to expand into the market. At present, 35% of the contracted area comes from market expansion. This proportion will further increase in the future.
In 2018, the acquisition of Hunan Tianchuang Property, a leader in regional campus property management, will expand in various sub-industries such as government, neighborhoods, and commercial offices, in addition to residential properties.
Poly Property itself can provide the scale advantage of serving over 3 million owners and cultivate community value-added services, which is still in its infancy.
Why should the growth rate of settlement area gradually exceed the growth rate of completed area in 2018?
What is the progress of integration with Poly Real Estate?
Commercial self-owned properties completed in 2018 are relatively high.
In 2018, the company has completed the acquisition and delivery of 50% equity of Poly (Hong Kong) Holdings Co., Ltd., and future business integration will be promoted in accordance with the announcement.
Since both are public companies, there will still be multiple independent operations.
Future performance planning?
2 billion impairment was accrued in the fourth quarter. Is it possible for the conversion market to recover in 2019?
Future performance will maintain steady growth and will gradually smooth settlement differences between multiple quarters.
The projects withdrawn for impairment in 2018 were mainly affected by government price limits, and some projects were affected by the expected deterioration of the market.
As the market picks up, the market environment for some projects may improve and they will consider rushing back again.
The chairman ‘s birthday is October 10, and his term of office lasts until the end of 2020.
Poly Group will have arrangements for the transfer of the chairman, and the transfer will be smooth in the future.
The company’s rolling stock value is 100 billion in 2018, and 550 billion will be newly launched in 2019. Based on the comprehensive desalination rate of 75% -83% in the past few years, the sales target is between 480-540 billion?
The top three sales targets were proposed in 2017. Why did they become the top three in comprehensive strength targets?
Sales estimates are inseparable from ten.
In 2017, the chairman proposed that the sales scale entered the top three in the industry within 2-3 years, which mainly indicates the company’s positive attitude. It will continue to move in this direction in the future and strive to promote the position of the leader.
Are there off-balance sheet items in business?
No, it’s all in-table items.
In the future, business will seize a good rhythm in the combination of asset-heavy and asset-light, and at the same time actively seek opportunities for acquisition and investment in properties, and to a certain extent, it will expand the scale and capabilities of business operations through capital operations.
According to the annual report, the floor price of the carry-over costs is about 3,600 yuan / square, including capitalized interest?
How to look forward to the national property market in 2019?
Land acquisition plan and pace?
Future dividend plan?
The tone of the property market in 2019 is adjustment.
The growth rate of sales of leading real estate companies declined in the first quarter. The sales growth rates of some of the major third- and fourth-tier real estate companies were located at the same time. The price index formed by the company using its own real estate data has been declining from the second half of last year to the beginning of this year.
However, the adjustment of the property market in 2019 is controllable, and the liquidity and policy aspects of the first quarter of the reorganization have indeed been relaxed. The core budget logic of this year is one city and one policy. When the market is weak, the policy relaxation space will open, butThe slight rise in some cities will also tighten policies, so the tandem property market will transition in a narrow box.
The core feature of the property market in 2019 is differentiation. Several real estate companies are relatively optimistic about the market this year. That is because most of the first-tier and second-tier core cities they have deployed gradually heat up this year. Some third-tier and fourth-tier cities with no industry and population support.The adjustment may be deep and it takes time to recover.
In 2019, the company will maintain the tone of active expansion, adhere to the principle of incremental expansion, and scale sales of $ 400 billion, then land expansion will exceed $ 400 billion.
Regionally, it will focus on first-tier and second-tier cities and surrounding urban agglomerations, and increase intensive cultivation of advantageous areas. In some Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Areas, especially the new round of urban reform opportunities in Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhongshan, Zhuhai, and Guangzhou will be focused on.
The Yangtze River Delta has always been a key area of the company’s layout. The data looks weaker, but the investment strength continues to increase, especially in Zhejiang’s urban coverage and investment strength is increasing every year.
The growth mode of first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai is being adjusted, and the rules of the game are changing, but investment intensity must still be maintained because it is a global city.
Third- and fourth-tier cities should focus on the company’s existing strategic layout, improve improvement and inaction, strengthen strategic research and judgment, and actively enter when the cycle goes up.
The company’s dividend rate has remained at about 30% in the past few years, and maintenance will maintain this level.
Will Poly Real Estate’s projects in China be handled by Poly Real Estate?
Are there plans to consolidate Poly Property in the future?
Would you consider increasing the layout of Shenzhen?
The development of domestic projects will definitely be based on Poly Real Estate, but there is a transition period, after which Poly Real Estate is also a listed company.
It is difficult to obtain resources in Shenzhen, which has a lot of money. As soon as the transformation is about to involve in an old reform project, the government will issue a unified document.
What new reforms will there be in terms of incentives?
The company will actively follow up any incentives that are conducive to the development of the company.
Except for common equity incentives, following investment, there does not appear to be any new incentive replacement.
What are the reforms in market value management?
Will it consider the means of major shareholders to increase their holdings, buybacks, and employee shareholding?
The company’s well-known investors return, the 30% dividend rate is relatively high in the leading housing enterprises; performance growth is relatively stable.
The company will continue to do a good job of information communication and value transmission.
The company’s style is relatively robust, and when it comes to it, it will do it, and it will do better.
If the market fluctuates, it will consider the increase in holdings of major shareholders, repurchases and other tools.
In fact, some market value management tools are not necessarily a good thing for the housing business. Some kind of repurchase, but now the repurchased shares can be used to issue convertible bonds or employee shareholdings, which is still very good and will be studied for feasibility.
The company’s debt financing ability is very strong, and it will not use equity financing as a last resort to avoid diluting the interests of old shareholders.
Why Vanke estimates higher than Poly?
Is it because Vanke has a higher ROE and a higher net debt ratio?
As a state-owned enterprise, “three go, one drop and one supplement” is a task that must be completed.
The SASAC’s assessment of the company is the asset-liability ratio, and it cannot exclude the advance payment. Therefore, among the top five in the industry, Poly’s asset-liability ratio is the lowest.
The identity of the central SOE has imposed certain restrictions on the company’s ability to increase leverage and thereby increase ROE.
The company’s net interest rate still has a lot to explore, and many tools have not been used. It is not difficult to reduce the net interest rate.
How much room is there to improve the market share?
In terms of regional layout, the scale of the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao?
The TOP10 market share in 2018 was 26.
9%. In the future, leading housing companies will continue to increase investment and mergers and acquisitions, and the market share will continue to increase.
In terms of regional layout, the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau are important. In the future, the company will continue to increase investment in the Yangtze River Delta.
As the Yangtze River Delta spans three provinces and one city, the situation in each region is different than that of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The company will strengthen its research on the division of the Yangtze River Delta.