Dongfang Cable (603606) Matters Review: Submarine Cable Business with Slightly Better Performance Maintains High Prosperity

Dongfang Cable (603606) Matters Review: Submarine Cable Business with Slightly Better Performance Maintains High Prosperity

Matters: The company issued 厦门夜网 a 2019 performance forecast to achieve net profit attributable to mothers4.

About 5.5 billion, an annual increase of about 165%.

Ping An’s view: The performance exceeded expectations and the profit level in the fourth quarter further improved.

The company announced that net profit attributable to mothers will be about 4 in 2019.

5.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year growth of about 165%; in 2019, the main business income increased by about 20%, the submarine cable system and offshore engineering industry accounted for more than 40%.

On the whole, the company’s revenue scale is in line with expectations, and net profit attributable to mothers exceeds market expectations.

It is estimated that the scale of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1-10 billion, and the net profit attributable to the mother in the single quarter is about 1.

US $ 5.3 billion, the profit level increased further compared with the first three quarters, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of submarine cable and offshore engineering business revenue.

Submarine cable orders are plentiful, and growth in 2020 is guaranteed.

In 2019, the company’s new orders for submarine cables and laying were about US $ 2.3 billion, an increase of about 17% year-on-year. Until the end of 2019, it is estimated that the company’s relevant orders in hand reached more than 2.6 billion points. In 2020, the scale of submarine cable business is expected to grow further.

Taking into account the domestic offshore wind power rush installation factors, it is expected that 2020 will be a big year for submarine cable tendering. Submarine cable supply and demand are expected to further shrink. The company’s production capacity continues to expand and expand, and the submarine cable business will continue to grow steadily in the next two years.

Global offshore wind power is booming, and the mid-to-long-term prospects for submarine cable business are promising.

In recent years, through the rapid progress of technology, the cost of offshore wind power has fallen rapidly. The successful bidding price for the third round of CfD tenders for offshore wind power in the UK has been as low as about zero.

At 36 yuan / kWh, the high prosperity of offshore wind power has spilled from Europe and China to other parts of the world.

Domestically, more than 4GW of offshore wind power projects will be tendered through competitive bidding in 2019, which will provide project reserves after rush installation in 2021; Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam and other neighboring countries and regions will accelerate the development of offshore wind power to provide domestic submarine cable companies.Incremental market opportunities, the company’s submarine cable business is expected to get more market opportunities.

Investment Advice.

Considering that the company’s profit level in 2019 is slightly higher than expected, the company’s profit forecast is raised, and it is expected that net profit will be returned to its mother in 2019-20204.

55, 5.

7.4 billion (original value of 4.

32, 5.

390,000 yuan), corresponding to EPS 0.

70, 0.

88 yuan, dynamic PE 16.

7, 13.

2 times.

The company’s submarine cable business has outstanding competitiveness and better prospects for future development, maintaining 深圳桑拿网 the company’s “recommended” rating.

risk warning.

1. Offshore wind power is affected by policies. If future policies are adjusted, the increase in installed capacity may be less than expected.

2. The delivery cycle of submarine cable orders is shortened, and fluctuations in raw material prices may affect the profitability of submarine cables.

3. In general, the competition pattern of domestic submarine cables is more complete. In the future, it is not ruled out that the main outstanding performance is the expansion of production or the influx of new entrants, which will cause the competition pattern to deteriorate.

Sinochem (601117): Invested in the construction of China’s first complete industrial chain nylon 66 device broke 100% import dependence

Sinochem (601117): Invested in the construction of China’s first complete industrial chain nylon 66 device broke 100% import dependence

Investment highlights: Event: Tianchen Company, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, Sinochem Investment, a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Chemical Engineering, the controlling shareholder of the company, strategic investor Qi Xiangtenda and employee incentive platforms Zibo Tianxiang, Zibo Tianqi, Zibo Tianda proposedJointly set up a project company and plan to build a nylon 66 new material industrial base with an annual output of 100 tons. The first phase of the project approved by the board of directors mainly includes the construction of a 30-ton / year dioxazole co-hydrocarbonic acid plant and 5 tons / year of cyanide.Sodium chloride device, 9 ion / year hydrogen preliminary device, 20 probe / year adiponitrile device, 20 probe / year hydrogenation device and 20 probe / year nylon 66 salt forming and slicing device, as well as supporting public works and auxiliary equipmentProduction facilities.

The project has a planned duration of 3 years, and has been formally put into operation since the 4th year.

The registered capital of the project company is 2.7 billion US dollars, of which Tianchen Company’s equity ratio is 34%, Sinochem Investment’s equity ratio is 41%, Qixiang Tengda’s equity ratio is 10%, and the employee incentive platform’s equity ratio is 15%.

Di’er Neil has higher technical barriers and investment thresholds, the industry is highly oligopoly, and the country is 100% dependent on imports.

Diner is mainly an important raw material for the production of nylon 66. The total diner capacity in the world is about 200 tons. Among them, Invista of the United States, Ascend of the United States, BASF of Germany and Asahi Kasei of Japan have a total capacity of 175 inches.

At present, the supply of dineril in the world is tight, and most of the production capacity is only supplied by the company for the production of hexamethylene diamine and nylon 66. At present, the major dineril in the market is mainly provided by INVISTA.

Global nylon 66 consumption is mainly concentrated in China up to 23%, with zero throughput of raw materials leading to serious industrial chain mismatches.

Tianchen breaks through the technical blockade and is expected to achieve mass production of domestic independent nylon 66.

On September 29, 2015, the “Technology for the Synthesis of Adiponitrile by Butadiene Direct Hydrocyanation” with independent intellectual property rights by Tianchen Company passed the scientific and technological achievements identification of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation. The full-scale pilot plant for continuous production of tadiene in a ton / year direct hydrocyanation method for adipillil achieved continuous and stable operation, and the product quality reached the standard.

We believe that this time China Chemical Investment established the first complete industrial chain industrialized nylon 66 device in China, and gradually broke through the foreign monopoly situation. After the first phase of 20 is put into operation, only the production of nylon 66 is expected to contribute 28.72 million yuan in investment income to listed companies.: Assuming that the price of nylon 66 is calculated at 24,500 yuan / ton (including tax price), and the net interest rate is conservatively set at 2% (domestic nylon 66 leader Shenma Co., Ltd. adipitic acid is subject to INVISTA, and its net interest rate fluctuates, 2018)High 8.

64%, with an average of 2 in the past 5 years.

53%), then the 20 budget can achieve a net profit of 84.48 million yuan, corresponding to 34% equity investment investment income of 28.72 million yuan.

At the same time, through this project, the entire industry chain can be self-sufficient or directly sell dinier, which will receive direct dinier benefits. Based on the high degree of monopoly in the industry, agreement supply is generally used without market price. We expect the net profit margin of this part to exceed 10,000.Sinochem reached over 20%.

Dating war investment to achieve efficient collaboration in the industry chain.

Strategic investor Qi Xiang Tengda is the leader of the domestic C4 entire industry chain. The main product capacity is maleic anhydride 20 佛山桑拿网 catalyst, methyl ethyl ketone 18 replacement, butadiene 15 replacement, cis butadiene rubber 5 replacement, isooctane 20, methyl tert-butyl ether35 additives, propylene 10 additives, butene 10 derivatives and so on.

This investment and construction project mainly uses propylene, methanol, liquid ammonia, butadiene, adipic acid, gas flow, gas, etc. as raw materials, forming a synergistic effect with the existing industrial chain of Zhantou.

The employee’s shareholding is bound to benefit and is full of incentives.

The project company’s employee incentive platform has a shareholding ratio of 15%, and the in-depth binding of benefits is conducive to mobilizing the enthusiasm of both parties to promote the project to start construction and start production as soon as possible.

Revise down profit forecast and maintain “重庆耍耍网overweight” rating: the company’s new long-term single growth rate forecast, lowered its profit forecast, expected the company’s net profit in 19-21 is 25.

12 billion / 30.

14 billion / 36.

1.7 billion (original value of 26.

3.1 billion / 32.

8.9 billion / 41.

1.1 billion), the growth rate is 30% / 20% / 20%, the corresponding PE is 12X / 10X / 8X, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Perfect World (002624): The first-quarter results reached the upper limit of the notice, focusing on the development of new categories such as sandboxes and second-order products.

Perfect World (002624): The first-quarter results reached the upper limit of the notice, focusing on the development of new categories such as sandboxes and second-order products.

Event: The company announced the 18-year annual report, the number of reports, the company’s realized revenue, net profit attributable to the mother, and the net operating cash flow were 80.

34 billion, 17.

0.6 billion, -1.

3 billion, an increase of 1 each year.

31%, 13.

38%, -116.

16%; EPS1 achieved.

30 yuan, the company plans to pay a cash dividend of 1 for every 10 shares.

80 yuan (including tax), no bonus shares will not be given, and the capital reserve will not be converted into capital.

The company announced the first quarter report of 19, the number of reports, the company’s realized income, net profit attributable to the mother, and net operating cash flow were 20 respectively.

42 billion, 4.

8.6 billion, -1.

7.5 billion, 成都桑拿网 an increase of 13 each year.

26%, 34.

95% (net operating cash flow for the same period last year was -2.

9.7 billion).

Opinion: The company’s revenue structure has changed slightly in the past 18 years, with games and film and television businesses accounting for different proportions.

48%, 32.


Among them, the game business income is reduced by 4 each year.

06%, initially affected by the version number policy and product launch schedule, the company ‘s key products were delayed to launch in 19 years; film and television business revenue increased by 14.

62% (if the growth rate is estimated to be 40-50% after excluding the impact of the theater business), the number and quality of the company’s film and television drama projects have been simultaneously improved for the first 18 years, and it has stood out in the industry.

In terms of profit margin, the company’s gaming business gross margin increased by 1 in 18 years.

9 points to 66.

56%, mainly because some of the company ‘s products have begun to use the net method to recognize revenue. We expect that the gross profit margin of the gaming business will continue to increase significantly in 19 years.

In 18 years, the company’s film and television business profit margin fell 5.

78pct to 33.

50%, mainly due to: 1) the industry ‘s overall single episode size has decreased slightly; 2) the company has added a new team, and its own project profit margin indicator is relatively in error with the director ‘s studio; we expect the gross profit margin of the film and television business in 19 years to be flat or to decline slightly (The main theme shifts the script’s gross margin relatively higher).

In terms of cash flow, the company’s operating cash flow has weakened in the past 18 years. The main categories are: 1) the expansion of the new online launch time caused restructuring of cash inflows, while the R & D expenses continued; 2) the impact of the film and television drama confirmation cycle.

The annual report and the first quarter report update our perception and judgment of the company: 1) Accelerate the mobile game business to go overseas.

In March 19, the company announced a strategic cooperation with Google, through its intelligent marketing solutions and technical advantages, to provide quality games to global users; 2) Expand the layout of the mainframe field.

The company ‘s “Subnautica” launched by the company ‘s leaders has gained a lot of word-of-mouth performance. Based on this, the company launched “UnrulyHeroes” in January 19, which adapted the western culture from the perspective of Western culture for the first time and gained playersApproved. At the same time, the console version of “Perfect World”, the dual game console game “DON’T EVENTHINK”, “Torchlight II”, “Magic The Gathering” and other projects are also being developed.

Focusing on the expectations of “Perfect World Mobile Games” and “My Origins” exceeding expectations, it is expected to bring strong performance flexibility to the company.

1) The “Perfect World Mobile Games” was launched on March 6th, with over 1 billion running water in the first month, ranking first on the iOS bestseller list for 17 days, and currently ranking second on the iOS bestseller list.At the level of 600 million US dollars, if the trend continues, the company’s expected performance is expected to increase significantly.

2) The company’s first sandbox game, “My Origins” (Tencent’s sole generation) invited a test of word-of-mouth in a small area of the Rocket, and won a tap.

A 1-point high-scoring evaluation. The fusion sandbox and MMO gameplay created by it will expand and reduce the creatures that players enter the door, and expand and enhance the player’s immersion. It is expected to become the iconic product of this breakthrough new category.

In addition, the company ‘s second-generation product “Four Seasons Songs of Cloud Dreams” (Tencent’s sole generation) is expected to be officially launched at the end of May.”Xin Xiao Ao Jiang Hu” and other reserve products will also be gradually introduced.

Investment suggestion: the game sector, the company’s R & D operations and innovation capabilities are continuously verified. The steam China cooperation with Valve is highly effective in cooperating with the company’s game business and opens the downstream channels of the industry chain, consolidating the company’s leading position in the industry; the film and television sector, the company’s production strength and products.The quantity is stable, and the company continues to contribute to the revenue. At the same time, the company’s rich project reserves for game and film business bring strong performance elasticity. We estimate that the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 will be 21 respectively.5 billion, 24.

2.5 billion, 27.

07,000 yuan, corresponding to EPS are 1.

64 yuan, 1.

84 yuan, 2.

At 06 yuan, we give a 20X estimate for 19 years, corresponding to a 6-month target price of 32.

8 yuan, maintain “Buy-A” rating.

Risk reminder: The pace of new games going online is lower than expected, the supervision of the game industry is becoming severe, the return on business expansion in overseas regions is not up to expectations, and the revenue from film and television projects is not up to expectations.

Jiadu Technology (600728) Semi-annual Report Review: Industry AI Progress Smoothly Waiting for Orders to Arrive

Jiadu Technology (600728) Semi-annual Report Review: Industry AI Progress Smoothly Waiting for Orders to Arrive

The event company releases its semi-annual report for 2019.

In the first half of 2019, the company realized total operating income16.

52 ppm, a decrease of 4 per year.

79%; realized net profit attributable to mother 2.

14 ppm, an increase of 210 in ten years.

71%; net profit of RMB 20 million deducted from non-attributed mothers was realized, a year-on-year decrease of 62.


Comment on the deduction of non-net profit due to the issuance of convertible bonds, and the order landing performance in the second half of the year is expected to return to growth. The company’s revenue is close to flat, with a slight decline; the increase in net profit 杭州夜网论坛 attributable to mothers is mainly based on new accounting standards, and changes in fair value of financial assets are includedDue to revenue.

The decline in the decrease in net profit after deducting non-return to motherhood has been weakened for two main reasons.

First of all, from the perspective of dismantling, financial costs change significantly each year, mainly because the company issued convertible bonds last year, and accrued interest for the current period, with a change of about 1 million yuan.

From the perspective of operating profit, reduction of 1.

After the gain of 9.1 billion non-current financial assets from changes in fair value, the company’s operating profit was approximately zero.

54 ppm, which is less than last year’s decrease in net profit after deduction.

Second, the order execution rhythm is expected to have a certain impact on performance.

In terms of orders, the company won a total of 13.6 billion bids and newly signed contracts in the first half of the year, of which 11.9 billion rail transit system orders may start to have revenue recognition in the second half of the year, which is expected to drive the company’s performance back to the growth track.

The industry’s AI business is advancing rapidly, and technology is autonomous and controllable. It is optimistic that the landing and acceleration of the company’s industry AI products will advance rapidly in the first half of the year, earning 5346.

140,000 yuan, a substantial increase of 352 before.


R & D expenditure increased by 64.

46%, providing a good reserve for future AI business.

The research field of the company’s internal Global Intelligent Technology Research Institute has penetrated into the deep water areas of algorithms, architecture, and middleware, which has improved the degree of autonomy and control in related fields.

The AI transportation brain realizes the development of first-tier cities and takes new steps towards the future implementation of products.

The company’s three major AI scenarios are deeply rooted in the people’s livelihood, the implementation of AI technology, and optimistic about accelerating the future to contribute to the company’s performance.

Equity incentives for statutory key management personnel, showing the company’s confidence. The company also released an equity incentive budget at the same time, and plans to grant no more than 31.9 million shares to 329 people.

The assessment condition is that the net profit in 2019 is more than 4.

5 ‰, the net profit growth in the two years of 2019-2020 is not less than 10 ‰, and the net profit growth in 2019-2021 is not 南京桑拿论坛 less than 1.8 billion.

The company’s new phase of equity incentives continues to target key management personnel and demonstrates the company’s confidence in future performance.

Profit forecast: We are optimistic about the continued decline of AI in the company’s industry, rail transportation business continues to expand, and maintains the profit forecast. It is expected that the company will achieve net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021.



1.3 billion, corresponding to P / E 23.



32 times, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: The project landed less than expected; the policy landed less than expected; rail transit investment was less than expected.

Weixing New Material (002372) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Good start and stable profitability

Weixing New Material (002372) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Good start and stable profitability

Matters: The company’s performance growth from January to March 2019 increased by 21%, EPS0.

10 yuan from January to March 2019, the company realized operating income7.

800 million, an annual increase of 17.

9%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies1.

300 million, an annual increase of 21%, EPS 0.

10 yuan.

The company’s revenue growth in the first quarter is better than Ford’s set (the target for total operating revenue growth in 2019 is 15%).

Comment: The gross profit margin decreased slightly, and the company’s comprehensive 武汉桑拿gross profit margin reported in the decline in sales and management rates was 43.

7%, down by 0 every year.

69 points; and from the point of view of operating margins, the company reported that the price was 19.

6%, rising by 0 every year.

57 points, an increase in the same period in 2018.
As well as other gains, gains from changes in fair value, gains from asset disposal, etc., are earlier.

Report the sales rate of the first-tier company and the management fee rate are 15.

4%, 6.

4%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.

6, 0.

2 points, R & D expense rate 3.

5%, rising by 0 every year.

3 points, financial rate -0.

5%, flat for one year; 24 during the period.

8%, a decline of 0 per year.

5 points.

Weixing New Materials strengthened the organization of the production and sales organization system in the second half of 2018, and the number of employees increased by more than 600 people (more than 300 of them were new sales staff). From the operating conditions in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019,, The company achieved a rebound in revenue and profit growth (about the third quarter of 2018); and due to the expansion of the production scale, the company’s sales rate has dropped.

Promote business synergy and still maintain stable growth potential. The company set up wholly-owned subsidiaries Zhejiang Weixing Water Purification Technology Co., Ltd. and Weixing New Materials (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. in February and March 2019, respectively.

With the continuous development of existing channels, the water purification and waterproofing business is expected to become a new growth point for the company in the future, and it will gradually transform into the Hong Kong platform, and the company’s internationalization will continue to accelerate.

The main retail property of plastic pipe is high, which can make the company’s merger bargaining power and stable profitability. Reporting, reporting, the company proactively increase the purchase of raw materials, so as to avoid the impact of rising prices of raw materials such as PPR to a certain extent.

Profit forecast and investment rating.

Weixing’s new material products have strong retail attributes and maintain high profitability. The first quarter of 2019 started well. We believe that the improvement of real estate completion and the recovery of second-hand housing transactions in first-tier and second-tier cities in China will benefit the company’s home improvement retail business.And real estate engineering, waterproof and water purification business is also steadily developing.

We maintain EPS 0 for the company 19-21.

90, 1.

07, 1.

25 yuan profit forecast, maintain target price of 22.

5 yuan, corresponding to the dynamic PE level on the 25th of 2南京夜网 019, and maintain the “recommended” rating.

Risk Warning: Declining macroeconomic demand; rising crude oil prices cause rising raw material costs.

Jerry Shares (002353) Company Express: Oil Service’s Prosperity Cycle Revenue Increases Rapidly

Jerry Shares (002353) Company Express: Oil Service’s Prosperity Cycle Revenue Increases Rapidly

Rapid increase in revenue, profitability and profit flexibility: the company actually achieved revenue45.

950,000 yuan, an increase of 44 in ten years.

2%; net profit attributable to mother 6.

100 million, an increase of 803% in ten years.

In the fourth quarter, it achieved revenue of 16.

900 million yuan, net profit 2.

500 million US dollars, both in the past and continuous growth.

The company’s top income is 44 compared to our democratic forecast.

940,000 yuan is equivalent, the net profit is higher than the budget forecast5.

490 thousand yuan 11.


The preliminary effective net profit margin increased to 13.

3%, higher than the 12 expected by developing countries.

2%, profitability exceeded expectations. Through the company’s continuous operation in recent years during the downturn of the industry, gradual and refined management has significantly improved operating efficiency. Gradually, it is expected that China will continue to increase oil and gas production in the second half of last year.The proportion of completion equipment to total revenue improved.

Capital expenditures of domestic oil and gas companies increased, and the company ‘s domestic business grew faster than overseas: the growing demand gap for oil and gas production, import dependence continued to rise, and energy security strategies pushed domestic oil and gas companies to increase capital expenditures.

Three barrels of oil are stepping up exploration and development, promoting domestic oil and gas reserves increase and production, which will lengthen the boom cycle of the upstream oil service industry.

Benefiting from the company’s domestic business growth faster than overseas last year, the future impact of oil price fluctuations on the company’s overall performance will weaken.

The company added 26 new orders in the first half of last year.

60,000 yuan, an increase of 31 in ten years.

2%; Considering that the long-term energy security strategy was proposed in the second half of 2018, the pulling effect of capital expenditures in exploration and mining is a gradual release process. It is expected that the company’s gradual order growth rate will reach a new level.

Oil prices entering the comfort zone are expected to be stable, and overseas oil services are picking up: Since this year, OPEC + production reduction commitments have been basically fulfilled. Since December 2018, cloth oil has once again risen to the equilibrium range of 60-70 US dollars.

It is expected that the OPEC Union meeting in April this year will extend the production reduction agreement to the end of the year, and the oil price operation is expected to be relatively stable, which will provide a good environment for the gradual recovery of the global oil service industry.

The company actively lays out its global marketing network, forming six major sales regions, among which Russia, Central Asia, the Middle East and North America account for a relatively high proportion of revenue.

According to investor relations, the company’s demand for fracturing and coiled tubing operations in Russia and the Middle East has increased.

Investment suggestion: Considering 南京桑拿网 the increase in domestic oil and gas exploration, the global oil service industry’s business climate is gradually recovering, and the company’s layout in the field of drilling and completion equipment’s leading advantages and production technology services, we have raised the operating income forecast for 2019 and 2020 by 60.

6.7 billion, 78.

8.7 billion, raised to 62.

30,000 yuan, 80.

64 ppm with an increase of 2.

24%, 2.

24%; At the same time, we raise the airport’s net profit forecast for 2019 and 20207.

51 ppm, 10.

6.4 billion, raised to 8 respectively.

3.2 billion, 11.

02 trillion, the increase is 10.

79%, 3.

57%; According to our forecast, the current target corresponds to a dynamic P / E ratio of 23 times in 2019, and maintains the “overweight-A” rating.

Risk reminder: The constant change of oil prices causes the risk of global oil service demand, the risk of overseas business being affected by local politics and economy, and the capital expenditures of major domestic oil and gas companies are less than expected.

Shanghai Airport (600009): Outbound speed impacts non-aviation growth costs and performance is still productive under pressure

Shanghai Airport (600009): Outbound speed impacts non-aviation growth costs and performance is still productive under pressure

Investment Highlights: Event: Shanghai Airport released the third quarter report of 2019 on October 29, and Shanghai Airport achieved operating income of 82 from January to September 2019.

08 million yuan, an increase of 18 in ten years.

9%, net profit attributable to mother 39.

950,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.

2%, of which Q3 achieved operating income of 27.

52 ppm, an increase 武汉夜生活网 of 14 years.

9%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 12.

95 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

7%, in line with the performance expectations we gave in early October.

  The growth of aviation revenue is stable, and the commissioning of the satellite office is favorable for the release of production capacity.

Daxing Airport has officially opened, and Shanghai Pudong Airport is expected to become the airport with the largest number of local passengers after the large-scale relocation of the Capital Airport next year. However, due to the “Circular 115”, the growth rate is slow at all times, and the number of flights will increase from the third quarter of 2019.2.

03%, of which domestic takeoffs and landings only increased by 3.

36%, for several consecutive quarters are about 3%. It is expected that the growth rate of aviation revenue in Q3 2019 will be the same as in the first half of the year, remaining at about 3%, and will not change.

At present, the satellite halls S1 and S2 have been officially operated, and the flight close-up rate exceeds 85%. The target of on-time flight rates in the future remains above 80%. Hourly capacity requirements will be met before the winter and spring 2020/2021 season, and peak hour capacity will reachBreaking through existing growth, maximizing air capacity has continued to increase, and aviation revenue is expected to usher in a second increase.

  The deceleration of outbound passengers affects the growth of non-airlines, and the release of Japan and South Korea ‘s air traffic rights will facilitate the second start of tax exemption.

It is assumed that the growth rate of non-aeronautical revenue of Shanghai Airport is about 23%, which is slightly lower than the 35% growth rate in the first half.

Q3 Due to the impact of special events, both the outbound flight volume and the growth rate of passengers deviated, especially in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan areas, the volume of flights dropped by 6%, the number of passenger explosions decreased by 13%, and tax-free income was affected to some extent.

However, through the expansion of Japan and South Korea ‘s air traffic rights, the international and regional aviation growth rate of Shanghai Airport increased to 6 in the winter season of 2019/2020.

4%, of which Japan and South Korea flights increased by more than 25%.

It is expected that after the summer and autumn season of 2020, the growth rate of Japan-South Korea flights will accelerate and the non-aeronautical revenue will return to high-speed growth after the special event in the future, and the proportion of revenue will also go further.

Ranking in aviation revenue, tax exemption and other non-aeronautical revenues have higher gross margins. Therefore, the continuous increase in the proportion of non-aeronautical revenues will gradually increase the overall profitability of Shanghai Airport.

  After the satellite hall was put into production, the cost rose, and the performance was still flawed under the short-term cost pressure.

After the satellite hall was put into production, Shanghai Airport entered a new starting point of the airport’s “life cycle”, and the short-term cost increased rapidly.

According to the calculation of the statement, the fixed assets of Shanghai Airport increased by 120 ‰ in the third quarter of 2019. Under the 30-year depreciation period, the annual depreciation is USD 400 million, and the single quarter depreciation is 1 trillion. Q3 reduced the depreciation and the operating cost is expected to increase by 0.

600 million.

Because the satellite hall was completed in July and put into use in September, the annual cost increase caused by the satellite hall was about 600 million to 1 billion. In the future, the cost pressure could be controlled, and the Q3 effect would continue to increase, which has obvious advantages.

  Investment suggestion: From the results announcement and operating data, the growth rate of Shanghai Airport’s operating income is still maintained at a high level, non-aeronautical revenue accounts for more than 50%, and costs are within a reasonable growth range, and long-term fundamentals continue to improve.

Therefore, we adjusted our profit forecast for 2019-2021 to 52.

6.3 billion, 57.

8.2 billion and 61.

1.5 billion (51 before modification).

03 billion, 54.

6.3 billion and 63.

3.8 billion), corresponding to the current PE of 27 times, 24 times and 23 times, maintaining the “buy” level.

  Risk reminder: The macro economy is significantly down, passenger growth is slower than expected, and the Civil Aviation Administration is always stricter.

Wanhua Chemical (600309) Company Comments: MDI Listing Price Temporarily Reduced and Continues to Be Optimistic About Wanhua Chemical

Wanhua Chemical (600309) Company Comments: MDI Listing Price Temporarily Reduced and Continues to Be Optimistic About Wanhua Chemical

Event: The company announced the China MDI price announcement in January 2020. The aggregated MDI distribution market price in China was 13,500 yuan / ton (down 3,000 yuan / ton from December 2019), and the direct market price was 14,000 yuan / ton (ratio) December 2019 price reduction of 2,000 yuan / ton); pure MDI listing price of 18,700 yuan / ton (down from December 2019 price of 3,300 yuan / ton).

Comments: The MDI listing price was reduced in January, in line with the recent MDI price trend.

In December, the prices of aggregate MDI and pure MDI showed different trends.

According to the data of Tiantian Chemical Network, as of December 26, the average price of aggregate MDI for the month was 12,879 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.

47%; the average pure MDI price for the month was 16,610 yuan / ton, down 4 from November.


On the supply side, Wanhua Ningbo and Chongqing BASF are both in overhaul status. Other manufacturers have continued their limited supply policy, with obvious support on the supply side. On the cost side, the growth of pure benzene, the raw material, has slowed down, but is still at a high level. On the demand side, the domestic polyether market has the highest weakness.The terminal demand is the highest.

Taking into account the inventory situation of channels and downstream enterprises, the decline in MDI prices is limited and may improve in the future as needed.

The MDI market is ushering in a traditional low season, and prices are expected to pick up next year.

From historical data, excluding the tight supply of MDI at the end of 2017 leading to price increases, so the listing price in early 2018 was at a high level, and the early MDI prices in other years were at a high level.

Domestic pure MDI is mainly used in synthetic leather, sole materials, spandex, TPU and other fields. Polymeric MDI is mainly used in white appliances, building materials insulation, automobiles, containers and other fields. The degree of prosperity of the end market will have a certain impact on MDI prices.

With the extension of the Spring Festival in January, the terminal enterprises basically enter the holidays, coupled with the logistics and transportation arrangements, the demand has continued to increase, resulting in the average price of MDI in the first quarter of the previous year was on the low side.

Wanhua’s lower MDI listing price is in line with the market price trend in previous years.

From the perspective of industry supply and demand, except for leading companies with technological transformation and expansion expectations, there is no clear expansion plan for other companies. According to the latest announcement, BASF ‘s US Geismar 30 is expected to complete its production capacity in 2021 and Covestro in Spain.A total of 25 estimated throughputs planned for Germany and Germany are expected to be launched successively by 2022.

As demand changes, international relations are actively changing. The MDI export market is expected to pick up. Domestic demand is steadily increasing. It is expected that MDI prices will show an upward trend next year.

The company’s MDI competitive advantage is obvious, and petrochemical and new materials projects are advancing steadily, and the company’s development is optimistic for a long time.

The company has grown from a leading isocyanate company to a global chemical new materials company, which belongs to the three major industries of polyurethane, petrochemicals, fine chemicals and new materials.

In terms of polyurethane, the company’s overall MDI production 四川耍耍网 capacity reached 210 tons, ranking first in the world. Through the acquisition of 100% equity of Swedish Chemicals, the MDI competition pattern was further consolidated, and it continued to enjoy oligopoly dividends.

In terms of petrochemicals, the company has completed the layout of C3 / C4 raw materials. The first phase of ethylene project is expected to start production in 2020, and the second phase of ethylene is also being planned.

In terms of new materials, the company vigorously develops fine chemicals and new materials with its research and development advantages. PC and PMMA are expected to achieve alternatives, and the performance of SAP and water-based coatings is released. The company has become one of the top 100 fine chemicals in China in 2019.Entering a fast-growing period, helping the company move towards a first-class chemical new material enterprise.

北京男士会所 Risk reminder: changes in MDI prices lead to changes in the company’s profitability, changes in crude oil prices cause changes in the company’s petrochemical sector’s profitability, the progress of petrochemical and new materials projects is not up to expectations, MDI technical transformation projects are not up to expectations, safety and environmental protection factors in the MDI production process,M & A projects are expected to reach the promised performance risk.

Profit forecast: The company’s net profit is expected to be 100 in 2019-2021.

51 billion, 126.

9.8 billion and 163.

4.7 billion yuan, with EPS of 3.

20 yuan, 4.

04 yuan and 5.

21 yuan, corresponding to PE is 16/13/10 times.

Sunshine City (000671): Pre-income increase in 2019 surpasses 30%, financial end materials continue to improve

Sunshine City (000671): Pre-income increase in 2019 surpasses 30%, financial end materials continue to improve
The company predicts that the net profit of mothers will increase by 33% per year in 2019. Sunshine City released the 2019 annual results report, and it is expected that the net profit of mothers will increase by 33% to 40 per year.2.2 billion, in line 北京桑拿洗浴保健 with CICC and market expectations. Attention points The profit growth exceeded 30%, and the net interest rate attributable to mothers increased.The company foresees operating income in 2019, and net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 9% / 33% to 614, respectively.91/40.2.2 billion.The company’s operating profit growth rate in 2019 was 11%, the net profit attributable to mothers increased by 2 to 7% compared to 2018, and the average return on net assets increased by 2 compared to 2018.08 singles to 18.46%. The 2020 contract coin is expected to increase steadily, and the ground end should be cautious.In 2019, the company achieved a contract budget / sale area of 2110 ppm / 17.13 million square meters, an increase of 30% and 35% respectively, and the corresponding average sales price gradually decreased by 4% to 12,317 yuan / square meter.We expect the company to achieve a budget of about 2300 million in 2020, with an annual growth rate of about 10%.In 2019, the company’s land acquisition area / amount was 12.3 million square meters / 633 trillion, respectively, -8% / + 13% for ten years, and the average land acquisition price increased 22% to 5,146 yuan / square meter, accounting for 42 of the current average sales price.%.In 2019, the company’s land acquisition amount accounted for 30% of the current period, which is more cautious than 2018 (34%), and the proportion of supplementary land reserve equity rose to 73%, reaching a new high of nearly two years (66% in 2017/2018 / 55%).In 2019, 84% of the company’s new soil deposits will be located in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities and Tier 3 or 4 cities in the metropolitan area.We expect the company to maintain a prudent land acquisition situation this year, and the proportion of land acquisition equity will further rise. Financial end materials continue to improve, and higher levels are expected to drive down financing costs.At the end of 2019, the company’s interest-bearing debt budget decreased by 1% to 1,115 trillion from the beginning of the year, and the cash on hand increased by 10% earlier to 417 trillion, and the short cash loan ratio reached 1.With a historical growth rate of 3 times, the net denial rate dropped earlier (221%) by 83 to 138%.With the carry-over of profits and the increase in net assets, we expect the company’s net debt ratio to replace about 120% by the end of 2020.In the second half of 2019, Fitch raised the company’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating and senior unsecured bond rating from B, B- to B +, and B respectively. Standard & Poor’s raised the company’s individual credit status assessment from B to B +.We expect that more rating agencies may upgrade the company’s credit rating in 2020, and long sleeves will drive the company’s marginal cost of financing downward. Estimates and 上海夜网论坛 recommendations We maintain our profit forecast for 2020 unchanged, and profit forecast for 2021.01 yuan / share.The company is currently trading at 5.0/3.9x 2020 / 2021e price-earnings ratio, maintain outperform industry rating and target price of 11.01 yuan, the target price corresponds to 7.0/5.5x 2020 / 2021e target price-earnings ratio and 40% upside. The progress of risk settlement was less than expected; the improvement of the financial side was less than expected.

Insurance positions in the first half of the year-top ten banks accounted for eight

Insurance positions in the first half of the year: top ten banks accounted for eight
Original title: Insurance positions in the first half of the year: the top ten ranked bank stocks accounted for eight seats and still added positions in the second half of the year.1%, is the second largest institutional investor in the capital market, second only to public funds.  With the disclosure of annual reports of listed companies, the position of insurance capital in the first half of the year has surfaced.According to Wind data, as of the end of June this year, insurance capital held a total of 91.7 billion shares of 396 listed companies, with a total market value of 1 position.34 trillion.  Finally, in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of each year, the number of positions held by insurance capital also reached 83.9 billion shares and 88.6 billion shares, respectively, showing a trend of higher positions from quarter to quarter.It can be found that in the first half of this year, insurance capital continued to increase positions.Indeed, in the first half of the year, the A-share market also experienced a wave of warming up. The Shanghai Stock Index rose 19 in the first half of the year.45%.  From the perspective of the industry, the stocks of risk capital positions are mainly concentrated in financial, real estate, materials, public utilities, energy and other fields. The number of shares held is more than 1 billion shares, which is not much different from the style of position of risk capital assets.  Absolutely, as an institutional investor in the A-share market, insurance capital has played an increasingly important role.According to Cao Deyun, executive vice president of China Insurance Asset Management Association, as of the end of June this year, the total balance of insurance funds through direct stock investment and indirect stock investment through funds and other products was 2 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 12% of the balance of insurance fund utilization.  At present, the total size of insurance capital investment stocks accounts for about 3 of the A stock market value.1%, is the second largest institutional investor in the capital market, second only to public funds.  Banking stocks accounted for eight of the top ten holdings of insurance funds. Insurance funds have always favored bank shares. This year is no exception.If we exclude factors such as China Ping An Insurance (Group) holding most of Ping An Bank’s shares and China Life Insurance (Group) company holding part of China Life’s strategic holdings, we can find that until the end of June this year, the insurance capital holdingsAmong the top ten stocks in the number of shares, bank shares accounted for 8 seats. Minsheng Bank, SPDB, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial Bank, Huaxia Bank, China Merchants Bank and other banks are all favored by insurance capital.The number is more than 2 billion shares.The remaining two non-banking stocks are China Construction and Gemdale Group, respectively, which belong to the civil engineering construction industry and the real estate industry.  Why does insurance capital favor bank stocks?Everbright Securities has published a research report in the opinion that the bank’s system itself and the large amount of land reserves of real estate companies ensure the safety of insurance fund investment.At the same time, the bank and real estate sector have comparative advantages in yields, which can meet the needs of insurance capital for stability of returns.Unlike foreign countries, high ROE (return on equity) is not the most important financial indicator of insurance capital. Insurance is more worthy of undervaluation and higher distribution by companies.  Increased holdings of 102 stocks by insurance capital. Seven stocks such as Sinopec were added to positions for two consecutive quarters. According to the data of heavy holdings of insurance capital, it can be found that in the first half of the year, the total amount of insurance capital increased by 102 stocks.Among them, 7 stocks including Zhouming Technology, Sinopec, Zhenhua Technology, Yasha, Wanliyang, Sangang Minguang, and Baoxiiao have gained shareholdings in the first and second quarters of this year, while Sinopec, WanliyangThe number of Sangang Minguang stocks that have been overweighted 深圳丝袜会所 is relatively high.  According to Wind data, it is China Life that has increased positions in Sinopec, which has increased positions in the first quarter of this year to 5,899.930,000 shares. By the second quarter of this year, China Life had added an additional 59.12 million shares. In the first half of the year, China Life bought a total of over 1 billion shares in Sinopec.  In addition, the increase in positions was for PICC Life and PICC Property and Casualty. PICC Life increased its position by 1.6 million shares in the first quarter of this year, and in the second quarter, the two companies added a total of 11.18 million shares; similarly, SangangIn the first quarter of this year, Minguang was increased by 80,000 shares of China Life Group, and by the second quarter, it was increased by 29.95 million shares of China Life 青岛夜网 Insurance.  However, the reporter from the Beijing News noted that although the insurance capital has greatly increased the holdings of these stocks, their performance is not outstanding. Wind data show that in the first half of the year, Sinopec, Wanliyang and Sangang Minguang each expanded 13%.65%, 3.03% and 22.79%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 19 during the same period.At 45%, only Sangang Minguang outperformed the market.  In the second half of the year (that is, July 1 to September 3), the three stocks of Sinopec, Wanliyang and Sangang Minguang rose by -8.23%, 0.52% and -13.76%, the range increase of the Shanghai Composite Index over the same period was -1.64%. By comparison, obviously only Wanliyang outperformed the market.  As a result, the data as of April 7 last year also reduced the holdings of 112 stocks.Among them, ICBC, Aerospace Machinery and other stocks have been reduced for two consecutive quarters.  In the second half of the year, the trend of increasing equity investment in insurance capital continued into the second half of the year, and insurance capital continued to increase its equity holdings.According to the data released by the China Banking Regulatory Commission, as of the end of July this year, the balance of insurance fund utilization was 17.33 trillion yuan, the use of insurance industry funds, stocks and securities investment funds reached 2.21 trillion, an increase of 0 from the end of last month.84%, accounting for 12.74%.  In fact, since this year, the regulatory authorities have repeatedly encouraged insurance companies to actively participate in stock market investment. In January, the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission reported that Xiao Yuanqi said in an interview with the media that in order to better play the role of institutional investors in insurance companies and safeguard listed companies,With the stable and healthy development of the capital market, the CBRC encourages insurance companies to use long-term account funds to increase their holdings of high-quality listed company stocks and bonds.In June, the China Banking Regulatory Commission stated that it was actively studying to increase the regulatory ratio of equity assets of insurance companies.  National Fund Strategy Li Lifeng’s team believes that compared with the asset allocation structure of insurance funds, the proportion of long-term insurance investment in stock assets is still at a relative level and there is room for increase in the future.  Beijing News reporter Pan Yichun Chen Peng