Gemdale Group (600383) November 2019 sales data review: sales continue to increase steadily

Gemdale Group (600383) November 2019 sales data review: sales continue to increase steadily
Event: Gemdale Group announced November sales data, and the company achieved a contract value of US $ 17.5 billion in November, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%; 98% contracted area.90,000 square meters, an increase of 30 in ten years.9%.From January to November, the company gradually realized the contracted amount of 1751.10,000 yuan, an increase of 31 in ten years.0%; Achieve gradual contracted area of 895.90,000 square meters, an increase of 25 in ten years.6%; from January to November, the company added 11.47 million square meters of surface area, an increase of 53% in ten years; the total land price was US $ 81.5 billion, a decrease of 2%. Opinion: The sales in November continued to increase steadily, + 21% per year. It is expected that the long-term sales will exceed 200 billion yuan, and the ten-year sales will exceed + 23%.杭州桑拿 The company’s contract amount in November was 174.700 million, an increase of 10 from the previous month.6%, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%; contracted area 98.90,000 square meters, an increase of 13 from the previous month.9%, an annual increase of 30.9%; the average selling price of 17,664 yuan / flat, down 3% month-on-month, down 7 later.2%.From January to November, the company signed a total of 1,751 contracts.2 ‰, an increase of 31% in ten years, a decrease of 1% from January to October.2pct; gradually signed an area of 896.0 million square meters, an increase of 25 in ten years.6%; cumulative average selling price of 19,546 yuan / square meter, an annual increase of 4.3%.This round of companies has been replenishing stocks since 17H2, 18H1 has started to accelerate, 18H2 is available for sale gradually accumulating, and 杭州桑拿 the market has accelerated. Sales have continued to rise for more than a year since September 18; considering that 11M2019 is still actively taking land, it is expected to be available for sale in 19Will remain abundant.At present, sales in the first and second-tier markets are stable. The company’s adherence to first- and second-tier cities and active construction will promote better sales flexibility. Considering 11M19 revenue of 175.1 billion yuan and 188.6 months of US $ 28.6 billion, it is expected that there will be a high probability of sales exceeding2,000 ppm, corresponding to a decade of + 23%. In November, land acquisition became more active, with land acquisition area / sales area reaching 181% and land acquisition amount / investment reaching 54%. In November, the company acquired 9 projects in Dongguan, Hefei, Chongqing, Hohhot and other cities in the land market.Still focus on the first or second line.In November, the company added 179 new construction surfaces.20,000 square meters, an increase of 75 from the previous month.7%, an annual increase of 256.5%; corresponding to the total land price of 94.200 million, an increase of 106.3%, an annual increase of 32.3%; Land acquisition amount accounted for 53% of sales amount.9%, compared with 50 in the previous year.8% increase by 3.1pct; average floor price of 5,258 yuan / square meter, an increase of 17 quarter-on-quarter.4%, a decline of 62 per year.9%, a decrease of 44 from the previous year’s 9,529 yuan / square meter.8%, taking the average land price as a percentage of the average sales price for the month 29.8%, compared with 51 the previous year.5% down 21.8 points.We use the company’s 19H1 semi-annual report and the July-November announcement of land acquisition statistics to obtain 11M2019 land acquisition amount of 815 trillion, -2 each time.2%, the amount of land acquisition / 47% of the sales amount; 11.47 million pixels of land acquisition, +53 in ten years.1%, the land area / sale area reached 128%; the average land price was 7,110 yuan / square, up to -36.1%, the average land price / average sales price is 36%, compared with 51 in the previous year.5% down 15.1pct.At the average selling price 1.950,000 yuan / Pingdu company in the first 11 months of cumulative new goods value of 2,241 trillion, higher than the sales amount of 1,751 trillion in the same period. Investment suggestion: Sales continue to increase steadily, land acquisition becomes more active, and maintains a “strong push” rating. Gemdale Group is one of the oldest leading real estate companies to try. 30 years of solid history and a high proportion of insurance capital holdings demonstrate the past balanced development and high dividendsFocusing on the first and second tiers + the start of construction actively promotes ample saleability + 19 years to keep the land under the positive, the company’s 19-20 sales flexibility is better.At the end of 19H1, 80% of the company’s total soil reserves were on the first and second tiers, and the advance receipts covered a high of one.8 times to ensure the stable release of future performance.We maintain the company’s 10-year profit forecast for 2019-21 to 2.24, 2.69 yuan and 3.17 yuan, corresponding to only 5 in 19/20 PE.4/4.5 times, the dividend yield is as high as 5.0%, maintain target price of 17.76 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level. Risk reminder: Real estate industry policy tightens more than expected

Chongqing Beer (600132): After the break, the pilot set off and took advantage of the sail to wait for Dongfeng

Chongqing Beer (600132): After the break, the pilot set off and took advantage of the sail to wait for Dongfeng
After the reforms broke through, the operating indicators led domestic counterparts Chongqing Beer, as the only holding company listed by Carlsberg on a stock, as an important platform for the Group to integrate resources to participate in the Chinese market competition. After holding the shares in 2013, it has undergone drastic reforms and adjustments (reduction of bottles)), Close the factory to improve efficiency, replace products and upgrade), lead the company to break through, the asset pain and profit replacement are no longer painful, and the operating efficiency is continuously improved. The current main operating indicators (ton price over 3700 yuan / ton, gross profit margin 40)%, Net interest rate 12%, ROE 35%) led the industry and became the benchmark for domestic beer. Local + international brand two-wheel drive, following the industry trend to upgrade to the space beer industry short-term entering the off-season, it is expected that the price increase measures combined costs stabilized and the performance flexibility is outstanding.From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the development path of domestic beer companies’ high-end product upgrades and production efficiency optimization is highly deterministic. Under the general trend of the industry, heavy beer has developed strongly through the two-wheel drive of “local strong brands + international high-end brands”.Alcohol Ambassadors, Chongqing Pure Health, and special alcohol Carlsberg are actively selling, and strive to promote the continuous upward movement of the product price system. The company’s ton price is still close to the group by 40%. The gross profit margin is 10% lower than that of the global beer giants. The effect of the regional focus strategy is gradually showing, and the overall market is expected to set sail again. Carlsberg China’s revenue in the first half of 2019 will increase by 19%. It is an important growth engine for the Group. The big city strategy has achieved significant results in China. Under the strategic guidance, Heavy Beer focuses on Chongqing’s base camp.And Sichuan and Hunan, the deep penetration will promote the promotion of the mid- to high-end market share, and regional competitiveness and the right to speak will continue to strengthen.Entering the window of Carlsberg’s pledged asset injection in 2020, Heavy Beer accounts for approximately 45% of the Group’s production capacity in China. It is expected that the Group will deliver advanced operating concepts and high-quality assets to the company, and expand the operating scale and strength of listed companies on a broader scale.Tap domestic beer consumption space and create long-term value returns. Risk warnings: product upgrades are slowing down; asset integration is less than expected; regional competition is intensifying; costs are growing rapidly; maintaining a “buy” rating is optimistic that the company will cultivate the core market under the guidance of the Carlsberg Group, with two rounds of local and international brand upgrades, combined with Yangfan 22’s 西安耍耍网 strategic business summaryEfficiency, driving the improvement of profitability, and the potential injection of external assets into the future is expected.  Due to changes in the 19Q3 medical insurance plan, non-recurring gains and losses were rejected, and the 2019-2021 EPS was raised to 1.29/1.18/1.36 yuan (previous forecast was 1.01/1.18/1.35 yuan), corresponding to 40/43/37 times PE, the one-year target valuation is 56.6-59.0 yuan (the original target was estimated to be 49.6-53.1 yuan), maintain “Buy” rating.

Longma Sanitation (603686): The initial growth rate of the single-acceleration equipment industry in the new decade of the service industry

Longma Sanitation (603686): The initial growth rate of the single-acceleration equipment industry in the new decade of the service industry
Sanitation service orders accelerated, showing a three-dimensional market structure. According to the announcement, the company recently made two consecutive sanitation service orders.Among them, the Cangzhou Environmental Sanitation Administration’s sanitation marketization project has an annualized amount of 42.88 million yuan, with a term of 3 years, and a total contract amount of 1.29 ppm; the urban-rural environmental and sanitation integration project in Neixiang County has an annualized amount of 45.45 million yuan, with a term of 8 years (may be extended for another 8 years), and the total contract amount is 3.6.4 billion.In recent months, the company’s sanitation service orders have accelerated significantly in the new decade.According to the disclosure of the third quarterly report and our follow-up statistics, the annual contract value of the company’s hand sanitation service projects exceeds 1.7 billion, and the total contract value exceeds 16 billion.Anyang City, Jiangxia District, Wuhan City, and Hanjiang District, Wuhu City have all taken over operations.With the opening of the rural market, the sanitation service has a three-dimensional market-oriented pattern of “urban + county + country”. As a leading equipment company, the company marches into services and integrates the operational capabilities of the integrated model, laying a foundation for the smooth expansion of sanitation services.Since 2019, the company has successively revealed a number of new signing projects, and only the amount of new copy orders from January to February exceeded 1.78 trillion, the total contract amount exceeds 20 trillion. Many factors have affected the growth of the sanitation equipment industry.Difficulties in corporate financing and other factors have replaced the growth rate of the sanitation equipment industry.According to data from China Automotive Technology and Research Center, the national environmental sanitation equipment market will increase its output in 2018.70,000 units, down 19 before.2%.In addition, due to the implementation of the new national standard in early 18, a large number of certificates were uploaded in advance at the end of 17 years, and a certain length of production was suppressed for 18 years.With the advancement of the new national standard, the growth rate of the industry is expected to increase. Investment suggestion: The 都市夜网 company’s “equipment + service” strategy is clear, and there are ample orders in hand to ensure the growth direction of the next two years. We predict that the EPS in 2018-20 will be 0.81/0.99/1.20 yuan / share, the latest sustainable corresponding price-earnings ratio of 15/12/10 times.The current estimated differences in sanitation equipment and service markets converge. We make estimates based on the market average. Considering the company’s business structure and the relatively strong profitability of sanitation equipment, we give 18 times a reasonable PE for 18 times, corresponding to a reasonable value of14.58 yuan / share, continue to give a “buy” rating. Risk reminder: the competition in the equipment market is intensified; the growth rate of the equipment industry is lower than expected; the advancement of sanitation 武汉夜网论坛 services is not up to expectations; low-price competition in the service market; and the investment in the sanitation industry is reduced.

Haida Group (002311): Steady growth in feed sales is expected to increase the performance of the breeding business!

Haida Group (002311): Steady growth in feed sales is expected to increase the performance of the breeding business!

Event: On July 29, the company announced its semi-annual report for 2019: reported and realized 210 operating income.

64 ppm, an increase of 19 years.

14%; net profit attributable to mother 6.

74 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

24%; net profit after deduction to mother 6.

63 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.


Our analysis and judgment: 1. Feed sales have steadily increased.

In 2019H1, the company’s feed sales volume increased by 武汉夜网论坛 539, an increase of 18% year-on-year; operating income reached 167.

33 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.

85%, gross profit margin 12.

17%, rising by 0 every year.

31 points.

In terms of categories: 1) Poultry feed volume rises steadily: The number of reports shows that the sales volume of poultry feeds has increased by 30%, and the gross profit margin has increased by about 2pct.Sales of specialty aquatic products increased by more than 20%, and sales of ordinary aquatic products increased by more than 10%; 3) Pig sales decreased: Affected by the swine fever epidemic in Africa, the industry ‘s production capacity of pigs was severely degraded, and the reported production of pig output decreased by 6%, Gross profit margin rose by 0.

5pct; the number of pigs slaughtered has increased steadily. In the first half of the year, the number of pigs slaughtered has reached 390,000, an increase of 30% per year. The number of piglets purchased outside is approximately 340,000.

The gross profit margin of animal protection products increased significantly, and the income from animal protection in the first half of the year was approximately 3.

30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 22.

09%, gross profit margin 56.

46%, an increase of 4 per year.

21 points.

Among them, aquatic animal health insurance was affected by the downturn in downstream prices, which increased by 14 each year.

65%; sales income of livestock and poultry animal health insurance was 5,560.

370,000 yuan, an increase of about 80% in ten years.

The company’s feed sales have grown steadily, and the expected sales growth rate is 15?
20%; hog slaughter is expected to grow steadily, the price trend of hogs will continue to rise in the second half of the year, the hog breeding business is expected to increase performance2, and the expense ratio and asset-liability ratio will improve slightly.

2019H1 sales expense ratio is about 3.

87%, rising by 0 every year.

28 points; management expense ratio 3.

3%, rising by 0 every year.

1pct, financial expense ratio is 0.

55%, increasing by 0 every year.

07pct; mainly due to the significant increase in short-term borrowings, which increased by about 1.4 billion US dollars by the end of 2018, and the asset-liability ratio increased by 3.

8 points to 56.


3. Promote employee stock ownership plan and improve incentive mechanism.

The company announced the draft of the third phase of the employee shareholding plan of the core team: it is planned to implement the employee shareholding plan to no more than 30 core personnel of the company, including directors, supervisors, senior management personnel of no more than 4, and other core personnel of no more than 26;The source of funds was 30.18 million yuan from the special fund of the company’s shareholding plan.

Continued promotion of employee stock ownership will help bind employees’ interests and establish a long-term benefit-sharing mechanism.

Investment suggestion: Estimated company net profit for 2019-2021.

86 trillion, corresponding to EPS 1.



89 yuan, 6-month target price of 35 yuan.

Risk reminder: the price of aquatic products rises less than expected; the price of pigs rises less than expected; the risk of epidemics on pig farms;

Nanwei Medical (688029): Leading company in minimally invasive medical devices continues to innovate to drive high growth

Nanwei Medical (688029): Leading company in minimally invasive medical devices continues to innovate to drive high growth

Key points of investment: The company has cultivated minimally invasive medical equipment for 20 years, and its performance has grown 杭州桑拿网 rapidly.

The company’s main military minimally invasive medical device research and development, manufacturing and sales.

After nearly 20 years of development, a “1 + 3 + N” continuous innovation model has been formed: 1 platform (medical innovation achievement transformation platform) + 3 major product lines (endoscopic diagnosis and treatment, tumor ablation, OCT) + new product linesTo inject sustainability into high performance growth.

Company revenue in 2018 9.

220,000 yuan, an increase of 44%, the CAGR of revenue from 14-18 years is 46%; the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in 20181.

930,000 yuan, an increase of 90%, CAGR of net profit attributable to mothers in 14-18 is 60%.

Endoscopy products are rich in structure, respond to actual clinical needs, and have strong core technologies.

The 杭州桑拿网 company’s endoscopic minimally invasive diagnosis and treatment equipment includes biopsy, hemostasis and closure, EMR / ESD, extended, ERCP, EUS / EBUS and other six sub-series products, including 125I radiotherapy particle scaffold technology that has been removed from the world.First, the endoscopically-guided anastomosis stent and electro-implantation system were replaced in China.

The company’s endoscopic diagnosis and treatment product specifications and models meet different clinical needs, have the same performance and price advantages, and have imported import substitution capabilities and advantages.

It is expected that through the increase in the scope of endoscopy, the related consumables are also expected to be heavy. We estimate that the domestic market for endoscopic diagnostic and consumables is expected to reach 6 billion US dollars in 2025.

Tumor ablation and EOCT: Enriching the company’s product line and leading the company in technology.

The company entered the field of microwave ablation through its holding of Kangyou Medical. The overall technology of Kangyou ablation products is at the forefront of the industry, with domestic cities accounting for about 23%.

According to estimates, we expect the domestic thermal ablation market to exceed $ 1.8 billion by 2025.

In addition, the company’s first domestic EOCT product is a new non-invasive optical biopsy technology that can be used for early cancer screening and surgical planning. It has been approved by the FDA (the second in the world), and it uses NMPA innovative devices to approve green channels in China.Or may be listed in China at the beginning of 21.

Earnings forecast and estimation: We expect net profit attributable to mothers to be 2 respectively.

81, 3.

74, 4.

8.6 billion, an increase of 45.

9%, 33.

1%, 29.

8%, the EPS corresponding to the total share capital after issuance are 2 respectively.

11, 2.

81, 3.

64 yuan.

We use a combination of PE relative estimation method and FCFF absolute estimation method to estimate the company. Under the PE method, we give the company a PE interval of 30-35 times in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable market value interval of 84-98 ppm.We get the company’s reasonable city ratio of 81 trillion. Combining the two conversion methods, we believe that the company’s reasonable market value range is $ 8.1-9.8 billion, which corresponds to a reasonable range of 60 after the issue of total equity.


5 yuan.

New stock premium effect: According to historical statistics, new stocks in the 30 days before listing have obvious premium characteristics. According to comparable industry / company statistics: the premium rate is between 24% and 39%, so the likely price range for listed companies at the initial stage of listing is 75.


2 yuan.

Risk warning: product certification risk; patent litigation risk; market competition risk; research and development risk.

Special Note: The reasonable deviation range predicted in this report is not the initial price performance at the time of listing, but the reasonable price range under the condition that the existing market environment remains basically unchanged.

Most cattle semiconductor ETF rose nearly 60% this year, 39 billion yuan inflow of funds

Most cattle semiconductor ETF rose nearly 60% this year, 39 billion yuan inflow of funds

For stocks, please read 重庆耍耍网 Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  The spring of technology stocks is here.

In less than two months, the performance of technology-themed ETFs has soared by nearly 60% this year, and has been sought after by 39 billion yuan.

  Wind data statistics show that as of February 21, 35 ETF funds have yielded more than 20% this year, and the top 12 ETFs such as semiconductor, 5G, TMT and other technology themes.

  Take a look at this year’s fund dark horse. Until February 21st, the National Alliance Securities China Securities Index ETF, which has the best net worth, reached 58.

96%, Cathay Pacific CES semiconductor ETF net value reached 56.


  The top ten ETF funds with outstanding performance: “Smart Money” in the market on February 21, continued to pour into technology-themed ETFs this year.

  The size of the three new funds was 186.

7.5 billion US dollars, respectively China Huazheng New Energy Vehicle ETF, GF China Securities Semiconductor Chip ETF, China China Securities Semiconductor Chip ETF.

  The newly established ETF fund this year: “Smart Money” is also pursuing technology-based ETFs in the secondary market. The scale of inflows this year has exceeded 20 billion yuan.

According to Wind statistics, as of February 21, Ping An CSI New Energy Automotive Industry ETF, Guolian An CSI refers to the Semiconductor ETF, and Cathay Pacific CES Semiconductor ETF have reached a scale of 1,253 each year.

68%, 296.

91%, 155.


  Technology theme ETFs with the fastest earnings growth this year: Calculated based on the average transaction price, as of February 21, the capital inflows of five technology theme ETFs have exceeded $ 1 billion this year.

Among them, the inflow of Cathay Pacific CES Semiconductor ETF funds is allowed to reach 59.

8.6 billion yuan; Ping An CSI new energy vehicle industry ETF, Huabao CSI leading ETF capital inflows exceeded 4 billion yuan.

  It is precisely because of the continuous influx of funds that the scale of the three technology-themed ETF funds exceeds US $ 10 billion, namely Cathay Pacific CES Semiconductor ETF, Huabao CSI Leading Technology ETF, and 深圳桑拿网 Huaxia CSI 5G Communication Theme ETF.

  Since the beginning of this year, the inflow of technology-themed ETFs: For February 21st, for the technology-themed investment opportunities, Zhang Yingjun, deputy general manager of the investment department of BDO, believes that 5G has led to the wave of mobile phone replacement and mass production of wearable devices, componentsThe demand of the company increased, and at the same time the amount of unit value increased.

  In the 5G era, traffic exploded, and IDC, cloud computing, network visualization, and cloud gaming industries benefited significantly.

Investment opportunities for semiconductor and chip stocks lie in domestic substitution.

  Edit: Zhang Yiwen

Qixingxingchen (002439) 2019 Interim Report Review: Deducting Non-Net Profits, High-speed Growth Strategy

Qixingxingchen (002439) 2019 Interim Report Review: Deducting Non-Net Profits, High-speed Growth Strategy

Matters: The company released its 2019 Interim Report to achieve operating income8.

82 ppm, an increase of 19 years.

13%; net profit attributable to mother is 1375.

420,000 yuan, 40 years ago.

97%; net profit attributable to non-parents is -210.

240,000 yuan, compared with -6924 in the same period last year.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 96 in ten years.


Comment: Deducting non-net profit increased rapidly and operating efficiency improved significantly.

1) The company realized operating income in the first half of the year8.

82 ppm, an increase of 19 years.

13%, of which 19Q2 single quarter company revenue increased by 19 per year.

46%, 18% faster than Q1.

64% continued to improve.

Excluding the impact of Anfang Hi-Tech’s replacement in 18Q4, 19H1 revenue growth rate reached 24%.

In Q2, net profit attributable to mothers was 54.27 million yuan, a significant increase of 1145 per year.

66%, exceeding our democratic expectations.

2) The company’s gross profit margin in the first half of the year was 63.

47%, an increase of 0 every year.

4 units.

At the same time, the company’s operating efficiency has improved significantly in the short term, and the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio (including research and development) have been placed separately4.

5 and 6.

5 units.

3) Overall, the company’s operating net cash flow is -1.

3.6 billion, an annual increase of 52.

56%, also has outstanding performance.

Benefiting from the improvement of the industry’s prosperity and the rapid growth of strategic new businesses, the company’s performance deserves positive expectations.

Enabling “safety in China and Taiwan” enabled strategic new business to grow smoothly.

1) In April 19, the company took the lead in launching the concept of “safety in Taiwan”, which effectively integrated the various security capabilities that have been 上海夜网论坛 built, and at the same time truly achieved continuous connection between its own security capabilities and business needs, and was able to work with the company’s independent security operation centerForm good synergy.

2) The company’s new operating business orders in the first half of the year exceeded 100 million yuan.

At present, the national operating system has basically formed four operating business support centers in Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou, and more than 20 city-level operating centers, and has formed a mature standardized operating system. In the future, it will continue to expand the foundation of the existing operating center business.On the other hand, the operation center business will expand to other second- and third-tier cities.

In addition, the company has also made positive progress in areas such as industrial Internet security and cloud security.

We believe that the company’s strategic new business is expected to continue to develop in 19 years and become a strong driving force for the company’s revenue growth.

Cyber security policies have continued to be released and the industry’s prosperity continues to improve.

1) On May 13, 19, waiting for insurance 2.

0Relevant standards were officially released and officially implemented around December 1.

Level protection objects and protection content are fully upgraded. The rapid development of new technologies such as cloud computing, the Internet of Things, and industrial control systems has brought new security requirements and brought billions of dollars of incremental market space; 2) June 30,The National Cyber Security Industry Development Plan was officially released to further promote the development of the cyber security industry. 3) The last two years of the National Thirteenth Five-Year Plan have made government and enterprises work hard to increase cyber security replacement and construction.

Driven by the above factors, the cyber security needs of developing countries are expanding, and the security market continues to expand. The company is expected to seize the opportunity of industry development and enter a new growth cycle. Investment suggestion: We believe that the company will usher in an important period of development in 2019. Order growth in individual industries is expected to pick up. Strategic new business is expected to continue to grow at a high speed. At the same time, the continued release of policy dividends will further enhance the safety market.

In addition, the company’s share-holding subsidiary Hengan Jiaxin Technology Innovation Board announcement has been replaced by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the company helps to benefit from its value increase.

We maintain the company’s net profit forecast for the mother to 2019-2021.

90 billion, 8.

9.2 billion, 11.

2.4 billion, corresponding to 36 times, 28 times, 22 times the PE, maintaining a target price of 34.

62 yuan and “strong push” grade.

Risk warning: order growth forecast; policy support falls short of expectations; urban safety operations fail to meet expectations.

Changyuan Power (000966): 2020 PE, the largest thermal power standard for coal price cost reduction, is only 6 years.7 times

Changyuan Power (000966): 2020 PE, the largest thermal power standard for coal price cost reduction, is only 6 years.7 times
Core point: Hubei’s thermal power benchmarking enterprises, thermal power installed capacity accounted for more than 97%.The company is a benchmarking enterprise in Hubei Province. It was established in 1995. The controlling shareholder of the company is the National Energy Investment Group, with a shareholding ratio of 37.39%.As of the first half of 2018, the company’s controllable installed capacity was 369.430,000 kilowatts, of which 3.59 million kilowatts of thermal power installed capacity, accounting for 12 of the total installed capacity of thermal power in Hubei Province.9%.Due to the increase in power generation and electricity prices at the same time, the company expects to achieve net profit attributable to its mother in 2018.89-2.2.5 billion, before turning losses into profits. Hubei province’s thermal power utilization hours are forecast to remain high.In terms of power demand, Hubei Province gradually expanded its power consumption in 2071 in 2018.4.3 billion kWh, an increase of 10 in ten years.83%, higher than the national electricity consumption growth rate8.52%, we forecast the growth rate of power consumption in Hubei Province in 20195.94% -8.25%.In terms of power supply, the increase in demand in 2018 combined with poor water supply has led to a substantial increase in thermal power generation.78%. The average utilization hours of the previous thermal power generation unit was 4,527 hours, an increase of 571 hours over the same period last year.In 2019, it is estimated that 2.35 million kilowatts of thermal power units will be formally put into operation. It is predicted that Hubei Province’s power generation in 2019-2020 will be 3004 and 315.8 billion kWh, with alternating growth rates of 5 respectively.03% and 5.13%, of which thermal power generation is 1354 and 1472 billion kWh, with a growth rate of 7 times.67% and 8.69%, forecasting the use of thermal power in Hubei Province in 2019-2020 is 4513 and 4,622 hours. Benefiting from Menghua Railway, the company has the largest target for coal price decline.According to historical data, the price of Qinhuangdao Port has changed by 10 yuan, and the price of raw coal purchased by the company is expected to change by 12.06 yuan.In 2019, the supply and demand of coal 四川耍耍网 prices are expected to improve. The coal price hub is expected to drop to 580 yuan / ton. In 2018, the amount of raw coal used will be about 680 tons. When the port coal price drops by 10 yuan, net profit will increase by 0.5.3 billion, performance elasticity of 27%, ranking among the top thermal power companies.The Menghua Railway will be put into operation at the end of 2019. The Menghua Railway can effectively reduce the freight cost of North China South Transport. The company’s coal transportation mode is 50% each for Haijinjiang and Railway. Assuming that the two types of coal transportation for Haijinjiang each halve,If the rest of the national railway transportation is changed to Mongolia-China railway transportation, the average freight can be reduced by 64 yuan / ton, which is expected to cause coal prices in central 重庆耍耍网 China to fall further. Profit forecast and estimation: The company’s operating income for 2018-2020 is 65.65, 65.80 and 67.69 million, net profit attributable to mother is 1.94, 4.41 and 7.0 million, EPS is 0.18, 0.40 and 0.63 yuan, corresponding to 23 for PE.99, 10.59 and 6.66 times.煤价中枢将下行,公司所处区域火电利用小时数保持高位且市场电折价较小,蒙华铁路投产后公司煤炭供给格局改变,煤价成本下降的空间尺寸,业绩弹性强,2020年 仅6.66 times, it is expected to be repaired to 8-10 times PE, and a highly recommended grade is given. Risk reminder: the risk of severely increasing demand for electricity, the risk that the water supply is better than expected, and the risk of significantly narrowing the amount of imported coal

Aerospace Electronics (002025): Steady growth in performance optimistic about military and 5G volume

Aerospace Electronics (002025): Steady growth in performance optimistic about military and 5G volume
The performance in 2018 was in line with expectations, and the results of optimizing operating management were significant. The company achieved operating income in 201828.34 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.50%; achieve net profit attributable to mother 3.59 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.27%; gross margin is 36.79%, an increase of 0.6 units.The overall performance was in line with expectations. The company’s “horizontal expansion and advance in-depth” strategy entered the harvest period, and military products, civilian products, and international markets blossomed.The performance growth rate is higher than the revenue growth rate, which is mainly due to the company’s continuous optimization of supply chain management and cost control, and the procurement of materials and materials has achieved the goal of reducing costs.We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 1.03, 1.24 and 1.48 yuan / share.Maintain “Buy” rating. Connector and relay business: Maintain steady growth and continue to benefit from a new round of installation of defense equipment. The connector business achieved revenue in 201816.50 ppm, a ten-year increase2.08%, gross margin is 41.26%, at least 2 goals.Relay business realized revenue 2.75 ppm, an increase of ten years.68%, gross margin is 43.25%, one before each time.According to the number of reports, the two major businesses together accounted for about 68% of revenue, and stable growth is the foundation for the company’s overall performance to continue to increase.We believe that the company’s military connectors have obvious advantages in the aerospace field and are expected to benefit from the 西安耍耍网 short-term impact of the military reform after the shortened compensation orders and practical training strengthen the demand; in the medium and long term, the full coverage of sea, land, air and space power is expected to benefit from the newThere is a high probability that a round of equipment will be accelerated, space launched, and national defense informatization. Micro special motor and optical device business: realize high-speed development, continue to add new technologies and new product research and development.410,000 yuan, an increase of 21 in ten years.05%, gross margin is 24.24%, previously subdivided into 1 whole number.Revenue from optical device business1.45 ppm, an increase of 42 in ten years.42%, gross margin is 32.20%, at least 3 goals.With the further development of intelligence on the basis of information technology for defense equipment, the demand for military micromotors continues to increase.The company continues to increase investment in research and development of new technologies such as optoelectronics, high-speed and interconnection, integrated chassis and precision micro special motors, and new products.We are optimistic that military micro special motors are installed in large-scale combat platforms such as precision guidance, unmanned aerial vehicles, and unmanned boats, as well as the intelligent installation of traditional weapons and equipment. Guizhou Linquan, as a leader in precision micro special motors, is expected to welcomeGreat historical potential. Vigorously promote the intelligent manufacturing industry and adhere to the scale of the military-civilian integration development report. The company continues to deepen the building of automated and intelligent manufacturing capabilities such as equipment online and process online, relying on the construction of twisted needle automated production lines and relying on the construction of intelligent manufacturing model rooms.A new pattern of “informatization, systematization, specialization, and industrialization” of intelligent manufacturing has been formed, in which a new model application model project of intelligent manufacturing of precision electronic components passed the inspection of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.In terms of civilian products, the company is actively deploying strategic emerging industries such as the 5G information industry, rail transit, new energy vehicles, and artificial intelligence. It is expected to benefit from the growing demand for supporting facilities and the potential for localization to create new growth poles.On February 22, 2019, the company issued an announcement and invested 1.02 Billion joint venture newly established Guangdong Huajing to build a developed production base for civil connectors, with a three-year performance commitment of no less than 37.5 million yuan. We are optimistic about the company’s subsequent order growth and maintain a “buy” rating. Considering that the company’s civilian products in 2018 were affected by the ZTE incident, we adjusted the company’s operating income from 2019 to 2021, respectively.67, 39.58 and 48.690,000 yuan, net profit attributable to mother 4.42,5.32 and 6.3.3 billion.Maintain target price of 27.72-30.24 yuan / share.Maintain “Buy” rating. Risk Warning: The increase in military spending exceeds expectations, and increased competition exacerbates risks.

Torch Electronics (603678) Tracking Report: Localization of aero engine is imperative, and the development prospects of special ceramic materials are good

Torch Electronics (603678) Tracking Report: Localization of aero engine is imperative, and the development prospects of special ceramic materials are good

Ceramic-based composite material CMC has a clear development direction as a hot-end structural material for engines in the future, and has a tendency to replace some types of nickel-based superalloys widely used at this stage.

The special ceramic material produced by the company can be used to prepare CMC as a reinforcing fiber, and the company’s industrialization ability in special ceramic materials has been strengthened to obtain first-mover advantages. In the future, it is expected to benefit from the accelerated development of the domestic aviation engine industry and the localization rate of upstream key materials.Promotion.

It is necessary and urgent for the domestic aviation engine industry to realize autonomous controllability.

The aero-engine industry is an important guarantee for national security and the strength of the country. We believe that, whether in the military or civilian fields, if long-term dependence on foreign engine products is long-term, the development of related industries may be constrained.

At the same time, the specimen semiconductor industry, after being blocked by technology, is making many breakthroughs under the trend of autonomous controllability.

Therefore, we believe that the localization of the above-mentioned aero engine is necessary and urgent, and it is also expected to enter a rapid development stage under the requirements of autonomous controllability.

Ceramic matrix composite material CMC, as a substitute for high temperature alloys in existing engine materials, has a bright future.

Ceramic-based composite material CMC is a continuous high-temperature alloy in terms of high temperature resistance, oxidation resistance, strength and stiffness, density, and corrosion resistance. Its development direction as a hot-end structural material for engines in the future is obvious, and it is widely used at this stage for some models of nickel-based high temperature.合金有替代趋势,而且目前已在GE、P&W、R-R等多款先进航空发动机上得到应用。We estimate that the 淡水桑拿网 demand for CMC in the domestic aviation, aerospace, and nuclear energy fields will be about $ 10 billion per year in five years, and the corresponding demand for reinforcing fiber materials will be about $ 3 billion per year.

The company’s special ceramic material industrialization ability is outstanding, and it is expected to increase 200 million net profit after full production.

The special ceramic material produced by the company can be used as the reinforcing fiber and ceramic matrix to prepare CMC.

The company has laid out special ceramic materials and PCS (which can be used as ceramic substrates and raw materials for the preparation of reinforcing fibers) for 6 years. The expansion has continued to grow. The subsidiary Liya New Materials has formed a capacity of 10 tons per year.

The number of domestic special ceramic 深圳桑拿洗浴网 material manufacturers is relatively small, the company’s product performance is stable, industrialization capabilities are replaced, and some products have first-mover advantages.

Special ceramics has strong downstream demand and foreign embargoes. Under the background of domestic substitution, the company’s industry segmentation and competitive advantages are prominent, and it is expected to fully seize the domestic market.

We estimate that the company is expected to increase its net profit by approximately 200 million a year after the current production capacity is fully produced and sold. Special Ceramics Materials will bring a breakthrough marginal increase to the company’s performance, which is the main driving force for the company’s medium and long-term growth.

The business sector of the capacitor business has benefited from the upward economic boom, with a growth rate of over 20% expected.

In terms of self-production, the company’s leaders in the field of military MLCCs have consolidated and consolidated. The downstream demand is better than the overlapping military information construction and domestic substitution acceleration. Traditional self-produced ceramic capacitors help maintain a 30% growth rate. Pulse capacitors, pulsesNew business volumes such as power multilayer ceramic capacitors are gradually released, and are expected to contribute hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue by 2020; the subsidiary Guangzhou Tianji monolithic ceramic capacitors and small-volume thin dielectric layer ceramic capacitors that are intended to issue convertible bonds for industrializationAnd other new product development potential.
In terms of agency, the company has a solid relationship with the original factory and continues to expand its product line. Driven by downstream demand in consumer electronics, automotive electronics, security and other fields, as well as tight inventory recently, rising prices, the business development trend is improving.

Risk factors: MLCC prices rise sharply, new product orders, market development is less than expected, etc.